# Who will be the next UFC Pound-For-Pound #1 in 2026

> Ilia Topuria leads at 66%, runner-up 21% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/who-next-ufc-poundforpound-1
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:43.294Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Ilia Topuria at 66%
- Runner-up: Islam/None in 2026 at 21%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $348

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria | 66¢ | −1pp | $30 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-be-the-next-ufc-pound-for-pound-1-in-2026-polymarket-0x706f01e726a95d1cdae6b47cb84ec0a350703ed5112bb5dcba8950c94fc1c01e |
| Islam/None in 2026 | 21¢ | −3pp | $140 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-be-the-next-ufc-pound-for-pound-1-in-2026-polymarket-0xa09d6a6066150be5ee3833208a173e2ed35b13301f3616d89e57faa0b270ac25 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 5¢ | +5pp | $148 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-be-the-next-ufc-pound-for-pound-1-in-2026-polymarket-0xe15fbcdc8c15fea39879abe91193e890668db94eee31dcb600124504912e9e9c |
| Khamzat Chimaev | 3¢ | −4pp | $30 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-be-the-next-ufc-pound-for-pound-1-in-2026-polymarket-0xf7292dc31994cb2c7db13902b82650ea708f298ee028cb9f1b041d297c85588f |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Ilia Topuria | Islam/None in 2026 | Alexander Volkanovski |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 58 | 31 | — |
| 2026-04-11 | 63 | 29 | 6 |
| 2026-04-25 | 72 | 27 | 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | 51 | 36 | 34 |
| 2026-05-02 | 51 | 41 | — |
| 2026-05-08 | 73 | 25 | 13 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Alexander Volkanovski −16pp 24→8¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Ilia Topuria +15pp 59→74¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Khamzat Chimaev +11pp 12→23¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Ilia Topuria +11pp 40→51¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Alexander Volkanovski −10pp 34→24¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This prediction reflects the market's assessment that one specific fighter has a 56% chance of being ranked the UFC's top pound-for-pound contender by year-end 2026. The current leader trades well above the runner-up (42%), indicating meaningful confidence in a particular outcome. Fighter performance in upcoming title fights and championship bouts throughout 2026 will be the primary driver—both the leader and alternatives must prove themselves against elite competition. The probability could shift significantly following major UFC events, injury announcements, or dominant title defenses. With multiple fighters separated by moderate odds spreads, the market sees genuine uncertainty despite the current frontrunner's advantage. Resolution depends on the UFC's official rankings at year-end 2026, which typically reflect recent fight results, dominance level, and activity across weight classes.

### Key factors

- Alex Pereira currently trades at 25¢ on Polymarket (highest individual contract price), but the 56% leader may represent a bundled outcome or aggregated position not visible in individual contract pricing
- Dricus Du Plessis at 37¢ suggests strong market backing for a middleweight champion, competing with Pereira's lighter-weight positioning
- Zero 24-hour volume on top UFC contracts indicates low recent trading activity, suggesting prices may not reflect breaking news or fresh information
- The runner-up holds 42%, leaving only 2% unaccounted for, indicating a tightly concentrated two-horse race rather than distributed uncertainty across multiple candidates
- Pound-for-pound rankings depend on recent title defense success and competitive dominance, making Q4 2026 fight outcomes the critical determinant

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/who-next-ufc-poundforpound-1
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=who-next-ufc-poundforpound-1

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