# Who will Nicole Kidman wear at the Met Gala

> Closed. Last odds frozen 3 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/who-nicole-kidman-wear-met-gala
Updated: 2026-05-06T06:50:43.415Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-04

## Headline

- Leader: Dolce & Gabbana at 50%
- Runner-up: Tom Ford at 49%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dolce & Gabbana | 50¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-nicole-kidman-wear-at-the-met-gala-dolce-polymarket-0x6ff48299fc1ca4befb3c01cbb40d0e9b784a13f8aa98693615ae8a03e31651f1 |
| Tom Ford | 49¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-nicole-kidman-wear-at-the-met-gala-tom-fo-polymarket-0xf3b7a51a1aa31c346ea30b40a6d4db757aefb4d8f9ab6ddba28f31a85b6e69a1 |
| Valentino | 49¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-nicole-kidman-wear-at-the-met-gala-valent-polymarket-0x0a6573c3c6fea6b55110a7e95adc5b068e0deeea5578778d71648cabab3a1630 |
| Gucci | 49¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-nicole-kidman-wear-at-the-met-gala-gucci-polymarket-0xaa21bd0012fa1cb4ab71bc232f3f512e047e9f82dee62b3437a6ec4283e16fa8 |
| Dior | 49¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-nicole-kidman-wear-at-the-met-gala-dior-polymarket-0xf2a515e549279324f63033ba0e3b6d719e63d13e8d46d50e79a9123e0af199d7 |
| Louis Vuitton | 49¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-nicole-kidman-wear-at-the-met-gala-louis-polymarket-0x1a1ce388008bc1540ebc6e2830b34a9ec6b6f6623d64dcad69d99139ffd1a2a0 |
| Balenciaga | 49¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-nicole-kidman-wear-at-the-met-gala-balenc-polymarket-0x3e2b2eb3008ccb2873b84a9d96c29943e64c8968eaf06c9e7e425d37cbfc142e |
| Armani Privé | 49¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-nicole-kidman-wear-at-the-met-gala-armani-polymarket-0x99ac54d60d26c1ae11a9111f11e9930882c8a7b2aa6524b44aa21c2d4d13ebc1 |
| Chanel | 48¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-nicole-kidman-wear-at-the-met-gala-chanel-polymarket-0xc43d0dcfb1054d3395d80c906bff4fcafbe0dde2c89bf65a7753e308ad0113ce |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Dolce & Gabbana | Tom Ford | Valentino |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 52 | 47 | 49 |
| 2026-04-25 | 48 | 48 | 49 |
| 2026-05-02 | 55 | 50 | 50 |
| 2026-05-03 | 55 | 50 | 49 |

_25 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Dolce & Gabbana +5pp 50→55¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Armani Privé −5pp 50→45¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This represents traders' current assessment that an unnamed designer (marked as the leading contract) has a 52% probability of dressing Nicole Kidman at the 2026 Met Gala. The leading contract slightly edges the runner-up, suggesting modest consensus rather than overwhelming confidence in any single designer choice. Key drivers include Kidman's historical fashion partnerships, the Met Gala's theme (typically announced in spring), and designer accessibility for high-profile clients. The main catalyst for resolution is the Met Gala itself, scheduled for early May 2026, when attendees' designer choices become publicly known. Current contract prices show tight clustering around 49-50 cents across several designer options, indicating genuine uncertainty in the market about Kidman's selection among multiple plausible choices like Valentino and Louis Vuitton.

### Key factors

- The leading contract trades at only 52%, barely above the runner-up at 50%, suggesting no designer has dominant probability in traders' assessment
- Armani Privé is priced lowest among major options at 41 cents despite historical Kidman-Armani associations, indicating traders may view recent collaborations as less likely
- The Met Gala typically occurs in early May; resolution occurs when Kidman's actual designer choice is publicly confirmed at or before the event
- Multiple designer contracts cluster in the 49-50 cent range, showing traders distribute probability across several plausible options rather than converging on one clear favorite
- Historical precedent matters: Kidman has worn multiple designers at past Met Galas, and event theme selection influences designer choices each year

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/who-nicole-kidman-wear-met-gala
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=who-nicole-kidman-wear-met-gala

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.