# Who will Petr Yan fight next

> Merab Dvalishvili leads at 75%, runner-up 13% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/who-petr-yan-fight-next
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:40.538Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Merab Dvalishvili at 75%
- Runner-up: Sean O’Malley at 13%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $372

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merab Dvalishvili | 75¢ | −3pp | $180 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-petr-yan-fight-next-merab-dvalishvili-polymarket-0xbcaca3f63d30369ec7f0fb122ca07b67b273026e0ce2a0f2ed70caac61753bcf |
| Sean O’Malley | 13¢ | +1pp | $181 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-petr-yan-fight-next-sean-omalley-polymarket-0xe2d97978631e33f826b446879ff7a95796212acd4166683bf9f691552433c640 |
| Umar Nurmagomedov | 4¢ | −2pp | $11 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-petr-yan-fight-next-umar-nurmagomedov-polymarket-0x2b8b28caaf1a47b1ccda94df9098c5d7e7950624a6db56abd79b5a5c5b072e11 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Merab Dvalishvili | Sean O’Malley | Umar Nurmagomedov |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 67 | 24 | 5 |
| 2026-04-25 | 74 | 19 | 12 |
| 2026-05-02 | 76 | 17 | 7 |
| 2026-05-06 | — | 14 | 5 |
| 2026-05-07 | 73 | 13 | — |
| 2026-05-08 | — | 14 | — |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Sean O’Malley −4pp 17→13¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Merab Dvalishvili −3pp 76→73¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The 76% probability indicates market confidence that Petr Yan has a dominant matchup lined up, with one specific opponent substantially favored over alternatives. This reflects the fragmented nature of the prediction market, where the leading outcome commands three-quarters of the probability mass while runner-up scenarios hold just 14%. The level is driven by available information about UFC scheduling and fighter rankings—likely tied to recent fight results, injury status, or official bout announcements. Resolution depends on official UFC confirmation of Yan's next opponent, which typically occurs through press releases or fight announcements during scheduled events. Market movement would respond to changes in fighter availability, rankings shifts, or competing matchmaking priorities.

### Key factors

- Official UFC announcement or confirmed fighter availability status for Yan's next opponent
- Recent performance records and ranking positions of potential opponents affecting matchup logic
- Volume concentration: the leading contract has substantial probability gap over alternatives (76% vs 14%), suggesting either insider information flow or consensus view among market participants
- Historical timing patterns for UFC bout announcements relative to event schedules and fighter turnaround windows
- Injury status or promotional priorities of competing fighters who might otherwise face Yan

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/who-petr-yan-fight-next
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=who-petr-yan-fight-next

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.