# Who will place first in the primary for Nancy Pelosi’s congressional seat (CA-11)

> Scott Wiener leads at 83%, runner-up 16% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 7 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/who-place-first-primary-for-nancy-pelosis-congressional
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:40.250Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-02

## Headline

- Leader: Scott Wiener at 83%
- Runner-up: Saikat Chakrabarti at 16%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $246

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Wiener | 83¢ | +1pp | $82 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-place-first-in-the-primary-for-nancy-pelo-polymarket-0x2e72b933a1daa2f2b76a8af990dc44fb3f3fe02c3b99084ed99b40835a2db0b8 |
| Saikat Chakrabarti | 16¢ | ±0 | $165 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-place-first-in-the-primary-for-nancy-pelo-polymarket-0x44c72c4ac31bac49724c80ed46339917d95f109ee31764c806432c7091a03598 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Scott Wiener | Saikat Chakrabarti |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 49 | 35 |
| 2026-04-25 | 81 | 17 |
| 2026-05-02 | 81 | 16 |
| 2026-05-09 | 83 | 18 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Scott Wiener +3pp 78→81¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This contract estimates that a particular candidate has a 78% chance of finishing first in the 2026 primary election for California's 11th congressional district, formerly held by Nancy Pelosi. The frontrunner's dominant probability reflects either strong name recognition, fundraising advantage, or organizational support within the district, while the runner-up at 18% suggests a competitive challenger. The outcome will likely be determined by voter preference in the primary scheduled for June 2026. Key uncertainties include candidate campaign momentum, endorsement patterns, and whether unexpected candidates enter the race. Resolution depends entirely on official primary results from California election authorities.

### Key factors

- The leading candidate's 78% probability versus the runner-up's 18% indicates substantial but not overwhelming separation in market expectations
- Primary election date is scheduled for June 2026; candidate filing deadlines and final field composition will clarify contest competitiveness before then
- Related Kalshi contracts show incumbent or well-established candidates in nearby districts (CA-25, CA-28, CA-17) trading at 89-96 cents, suggesting strong incumbents or frontrunners perform similarly across the state
- The runner-up candidate is priced at 18%, indicating the market assigns meaningful probability to an upset scenario rather than a one-candidate race
- Trading volume on the CA-11 contracts is substantially lower ($443-$776 per contract) than comparable districts ($3,069-$12,237), suggesting lower market confidence or attention to this particular race

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/who-place-first-primary-for-nancy-pelosis-congressional
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=who-place-first-primary-for-nancy-pelosis-congressional
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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