# Who will testify to congress about Epstein

> Elon Musk leads at 45%, runner-up 20% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/who-testify-to-congress-about-epstein
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:39.556Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Leader: Elon Musk at 45%
- Runner-up: Ex-Prince Andrew at 20%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elon Musk | 45¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-testify-to-congress-about-epstein-elon-mu-polymarket-0x919accaaa0401567e47dc9e7e2acaab929d9750a6af2f9264cc5c4d389e957fa |
| Ex-Prince Andrew | 20¢ | −15pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-testify-to-congress-about-epstein-ex-prin-polymarket-0x39e87fb738ce0a2ad70da2909cbfc215fceba65f7c98e11d7aafb75638c98e66 |
| Lord Peter Mandelson | 18¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-testify-to-congress-about-epstein-lord-pe-polymarket-0xc8e478639b24bd3c99190c0a5619b09dd12f7f35f46cc74e6b25955178041d46 |
| Donald Trump | 16¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-testify-to-congress-about-epstein-donald-polymarket-0xf2bdab25c86dd77d0a00a7bea2f532559b952f2acfaedeeae37c0a98cc0f8e37 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Elon Musk | Ex-Prince Andrew | Lord Peter Mandelson |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 18 | — | 22 |
| 2026-04-10 | 19 | 17 | 23 |
| 2026-04-25 | 9 | 17 | 19 |
| 2026-05-02 | 38 | 42 | 34 |
| 2026-05-07 | 25 | 18 | 20 |
| 2026-05-08 | 28 | — | 20 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Elon Musk −25pp 52→27¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Lord Peter Mandelson −15pp 33→18¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Ex-Prince Andrew −15pp 33→18¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Elon Musk +14pp 38→52¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Ex-Prince Andrew −13pp 46→33¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects market participants' assessment that Elon Musk will testify before Congress regarding Jeffrey Epstein—currently estimated at 52% likelihood. The market prices reflect uncertainty around whether Congress will formally investigate connections to Epstein, whether Musk will be identified in documents or allegations, and whether such identification would trigger congressional testimony. Key drivers include ongoing litigation and document releases related to Epstein, Congressional priorities, and whether Musk becomes a named figure in investigative findings. The primary catalyst will be further Epstein document releases scheduled throughout 2026, which may identify additional individuals Congress targets for testimony. Additional pressure points include any new litigation developments or investigative reporting that surfaces congressional interest in specific figures.

### Key factors

- Epstein-related documents are scheduled for phased release in 2026; the scope and contents of these releases will determine whether Musk appears and whether Congress pursues testimony
- Congressional priorities and investigative appetite for Epstein-related hearings vary with political conditions; current 52% reflects moderate confidence Congress will pursue this in the next 18 months
- Musk's track record of appearing before Congress when subpoenaed or required; historical precedent suggests high compliance rates but no guarantee
- Competing outcomes in this multi-outcome market show low individual probabilities across alternatives, indicating genuine uncertainty rather than consensus
- Volume data shows modest trading activity ($16-81 per contract), suggesting limited institutional conviction behind any single outcome

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=who-testify-to-congress-about-epstein

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