# Who will Trump announce as next Attorney General by June 30

> Closed. Last odds frozen 2 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/who-trump-announce-as-next-attorney-general-june-30
Updated: 2026-06-05T07:20:12.382Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Leader: Todd Blanche at 93%
- Runner-up: No Announcement by June 30 at 6%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $39K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Blanche | 93¢ | +57pp | $30K | polymarket | /markets/who-will-trump-announce-as-next-attorney-general-b-polymarket-0x788c96ce70ff9d8b3a78b4443d5107429d69a658ec956b1db45689771b54c329 |
| No Announcement by June 30 | 6¢ | −42pp | $8K | polymarket | /markets/who-will-trump-announce-as-next-attorney-general-b-polymarket-0xc3fdb556a123e6545f0ac61ce6ce04793ea18ba83d5305596fac858ff8b9aa63 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Todd Blanche | No Announcement by June 30 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 9 | 52 |
| 2026-05-25 | 9 | 72 |
| 2026-06-01 | 14 | 71 |
| 2026-06-04 | 87 | 10 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-04 · Todd Blanche +57pp 30→87¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-04 · No Announcement by June 30 −42pp 52→10¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-03 · No Announcement by June 30 −21pp 73→52¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-03 · Todd Blanche +19pp 11→30¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-01 · Todd Blanche +6pp 8→14¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market reflects the probability that Trump will publicly name an Attorney General nominee before June 30, 2026. Currently, the market suggests it is more likely than not that no announcement occurs by that deadline. The probability hinges on Trump's timeline for filling the position and whether he prioritizes Attorney General appointments early in his term. The critical catalyst will be any public announcement or statement from Trump or his team regarding a specific nominee. Markets often price in delays when official nomination processes have not yet begun or when political deliberation remains active.

### Key factors

- Trump has not yet made a public announcement as of May 2026, leaving 49 days until the June 30 deadline
- The leading candidate (Lee Zeldin) trades at 9 cents, indicating no single nominee has market consensus
- Todd Blanche at 10 cents is the highest-priced individual in the contracts, suggesting fragmented expectations across multiple potential candidates
- Historical precedent: Attorney General nominations typically occur within the first few months of a presidential term, but timing varies significantly
- Combined probability of all named candidates totals approximately 35 cents, leaving 50 cents attributed to no announcement—indicating substantial uncertainty about both timing and candidate selection

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/who-trump-announce-as-next-attorney-general-june-30
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=who-trump-announce-as-next-attorney-general-june-30
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

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