# Who will Trump announce as next Attorney General

> No Announcement by June 30 leads at 50%, runner-up 25% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 7 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/who-trump-announce-as-next-attorney-general
Updated: 2026-05-03T14:50:24.373Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Leader: No Announcement by June 30 at 50%
- Runner-up: Todd Blanche at 25%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Announcement by June 30 | 50¢ | +6pp | $293 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-trump-announce-as-next-attorney-general-n-polymarket-0xc3fdb556a123e6545f0ac61ce6ce04793ea18ba83d5305596fac858ff8b9aa63 |
| Todd Blanche | 25¢ | +1pp | $851 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-trump-announce-as-next-attorney-general-t-polymarket-0x788c96ce70ff9d8b3a78b4443d5107429d69a658ec956b1db45689771b54c329 |
| Lee Zeldin | 11¢ | −1pp | $321 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-trump-announce-as-next-attorney-general-l-polymarket-0x9157c83fc048cf87d5c5d982477d248f3b38e94616fa93ea653ed4c97caae33a |
| Ron DeSantis | 4¢ | +1pp | $649 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-trump-announce-as-next-attorney-general-r-polymarket-0xf14b5367028549f930b0db0f4efc22a5d8611a3518e98e52dae23679dd394d69 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | No Announcement by June 30 | Todd Blanche | Lee Zeldin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | — | 43 | — |
| 2026-04-26 | 30 | 45 | 16 |
| 2026-05-02 | 50 | 23 | 12 |
| 2026-05-03 | — | 24 | 11 |

_9 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-01 · Todd Blanche −16pp 45→29¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-29 · Lee Zeldin −11pp 23→12¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · Lee Zeldin +10pp 13→23¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-29 · Ron DeSantis −7pp 8→1¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-01 · No Announcement by June 30 +7pp 37→44¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This reflects market participants' assessment of which candidate is most likely to be nominated as Attorney General in a Trump administration. Todd Blanche commands the highest contract price at 64 cents, indicating roughly 64% implied probability among Kalshi traders, while other candidates like Ron DeSantis, Lee Zeldin, and Jeanine Pirro trade at substantially lower prices. The probability hinges on Trump's selection criteria, which typically emphasize loyalty, legal acumen, and alignment with his policy agenda. Key factors influencing the market include candidates' current roles, public statements by Trump regarding potential nominees, media reporting on his vetting process, and any formal announcements. The resolution point would be Trump's official announcement or nomination of an Attorney General, which would occur either following an election victory or during transition planning.

### Key factors

- Todd Blanche's current role as Trump's lawyer and public visibility in legal matters compared to other candidates' profiles
- Volume and price stability on Kalshi contracts indicate trader confidence levels, with Blanche's contract showing significantly higher 24-hour volume ($16,133) than competitors
- Public reporting or statements from Trump regarding Attorney General preferences and the timeline for such announcements
- Changes in other candidates' availability or prominence—such as electoral or appointment outcomes for Zeldin or DeSantis
- Formal announcement by Trump of his Attorney General selection, which would fully resolve the contract

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/who-trump-announce-as-next-attorney-general
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=who-trump-announce-as-next-attorney-general
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

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