# Who will Trump endorse

> Ken Paxton - TX-Sen leads at 58%, runner-up 31% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/who-trump-endorse
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:44.442Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: active
Closes: 2026-11-04

## Headline

- Leader: Ken Paxton - TX-Sen at 58%
- Runner-up: John Cornyn - TX-Sen at 31%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $205

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Paxton - TX-Sen | 58¢ | −2pp | $153 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-trump-endorse-ken-paxton-tx-sen-polymarket-0x6fb1af1cc7caa3b4479fa9a22ba149499795e99f39f807a5272cdbf89acba3b6 |
| John Cornyn - TX-Sen | 31¢ | −6pp | $11 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-trump-endorse-john-cornyn-tx-sen-polymarket-0x2aaffb7c88af0204f5095581dc72f82886f4e13902fe5c7727fac6ed48a25f11 |
| Susan Collins - ME-Sen | 25¢ | −2pp | $42 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-trump-endorse-susan-collins-me-sen-polymarket-0x07ab4a3d146dad453f0c195ab0760a50c8a3a841f6a45b2f8a457379d1c66a7b |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Ken Paxton - TX-Sen | John Cornyn - TX-Sen | Susan Collins - ME-Sen |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | — | 18 | 44 |
| 2026-04-10 | 61 | 17 | 42 |
| 2026-04-25 | 38 | 19 | 48 |
| 2026-05-02 | 50 | 33 | 33 |
| 2026-05-08 | 33 | 27 | 30 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Ken Paxton - TX-Sen −20pp 57→37¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Susan Collins - ME-Sen +9pp 24→33¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Ken Paxton - TX-Sen +7pp 50→57¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · John Cornyn - TX-Sen −6pp 33→27¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Susan Collins - ME-Sen −5pp 37→32¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This represents the market's assessment that Trump will make a specific endorsement—likely in an upcoming political context. The 64% probability suggests traders view the endorsement as more probable than not, based on Trump's historical pattern of public statements and his current political activity. The probability is driven by the frequency and timing of Trump's recent public communications, visible through his Truth Social posts and media appearances. The main uncertainty centers on whether he will make the particular endorsement being tested before a specific deadline, and what political events or developments might trigger or delay it. The single biggest catalyst would be any major political announcement, campaign event, or shift in political circumstances that would prompt Trump to issue a public endorsement.

### Key factors

- Trump's Truth Social posting frequency in the past 30 days compared to historical baseline
- Whether a specific triggering political event (primary election, candidate announcement, or party development) has occurred or is imminent
- The resolution criteria's specificity: whether the endorsement must name a particular candidate or fall within a defined time window
- Volume and implied confidence levels across related Trump-action contracts suggesting coordinated trader expectations
- Any public statements from Trump or his associates indicating his likelihood to make endorsements in the near term

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/who-trump-endorse
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=who-trump-endorse
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.