# Who will Trump name in April

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 39% across 20 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/who-trump-name-april
Updated: 2026-05-03T13:20:04.411Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 39% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 37% / Polymarket 42% — 5pp spread
- 24h volume: $62K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Who are you with / Where are you from | 30¢ | −4pp | $18K | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-say-who-are-you-with-where-are-you-from-kalshi-kxtrumpsay-26may04-who |
| Todd Blanche | 63¢ | ±0 | $17K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-trumps-next-attorney-general-todd-blan-kalshi-kxnextag-29-tbla |
| Xi Jinping | 95¢ | ±0 | $5K | polymarket | /markets/who-will-trump-meet-with-in-2026-xi-jinping-polymarket-0x3d6148ee5b42224e83416e728fa2df2242ecb1e025782bece2d4f5b45a2ab987 |
| Donald J. Trump | 3¢ | ±0 | $5K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-next-presidential-election-donald-kalshi-kxpresperson-28-dtru |
| Ron DeSantis | 6¢ | −1pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-trumps-next-attorney-general-ron-desan-kalshi-kxnextag-29-rdes |
| Lee Zeldin | 17¢ | −4pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-trumps-next-attorney-general-lee-zeldi-kalshi-kxnextag-29-lzel |
| Jeanine Pirro | 3¢ | ±0 | $3K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-trumps-next-attorney-general-jeanine-p-kalshi-kxnextag-29-jpir |
| Kash Patel | 66¢ | ±0 | $1K | polymarket | /markets/who-will-leave-trump-administration-before-2027-ka-polymarket-0xde2be5c360bafeb33cc43bd0a49368ed89371daca90e1cc6da8bf7f93d5bbadf |
| Kevin Hart | 97¢ | +3pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-kevin-hart-be-the-primary-target-of-the-roast-kalshi-kxroastsubject-30jan01-kev |
| Todd Blanche | 25¢ | +1pp | $839 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-trump-announce-as-next-attorney-general-t-polymarket-0x788c96ce70ff9d8b3a78b4443d5107429d69a658ec956b1db45689771b54c329 |
| Ron DeSantis | 3¢ | +1pp | $649 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-trump-announce-as-next-attorney-general-r-polymarket-0xf14b5367028549f930b0db0f4efc22a5d8611a3518e98e52dae23679dd394d69 |
| Howard Lutnick | 45¢ | −4pp | $524 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-leave-trump-administration-before-2027-ho-polymarket-0x6eb86679303704bfc4dc014b21914063124bdd26702a77f5bc1d6d1aa6178483 |
| Taylor Swift | 12¢ | +2pp | $493 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-time-name-as-person-of-the-decade-taylor-kalshi-kxtimedecade20s-30-tay |
| Who are you with / Where are you from | 93¢ | ±0 | $424 | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-say-who-are-you-with-where-are-you-from-kalshi-kxtrumpsaymonth-26jun01-who |
| Lee Zeldin | 11¢ | −1pp | $321 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-trump-announce-as-next-attorney-general-l-polymarket-0x9157c83fc048cf87d5c5d982477d248f3b38e94616fa93ea653ed4c97caae33a |
| No Announcement by June 30 | 50¢ | +6pp | $277 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-trump-announce-as-next-attorney-general-n-polymarket-0xc3fdb556a123e6545f0ac61ce6ce04793ea18ba83d5305596fac858ff8b9aa63 |
| Karoline Leavitt | 44¢ | +1pp | $235 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-leave-trump-administration-before-2027-ka-polymarket-0x1960b144c14900701330156dfc592272d97e42084ccc28ad4c653bf8c1f2bcb6 |
| Harmeet Dhillon | 3¢ | ±0 | $63 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-trumps-next-attorney-general-harmeet-d-kalshi-kxnextag-29-hdhi |
| Susie Wiles | 36¢ | −1pp | $38 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-leave-trump-administration-before-2027-su-polymarket-0xa8ce9e92890d683bee3fb877f69b88fde9fe6665fdd4e078f84f7c91fdf390be |
| Donald Trump | 75¢ | −6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-named-in-epstein-documents-released-in-kalshi-kxepsteinlist-27jan-djt |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 54 |
| 2026-04-19 | 35 |
| 2026-04-26 | 35 |
| 2026-05-03 | 38 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-26 · Kevin Hart −16pp 95→79¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Todd Blanche −16pp 45→29¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Who are you with / Where are you from −15pp 37→22¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-30 · Who are you with / Where are you from −13pp 56→43¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-26 · Todd Blanche +12pp 40→52¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/who-trump-name-april
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=who-trump-name-april
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

## License

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