# Who will Trump pardon before 2027

> Donald Brodie leads at 62%, runner-up 59% across 20 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 41 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/who-trump-pardon
Updated: 2026-06-13T19:21:03.943Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Donald Brodie at 62%
- Runner-up: Stefan Brodie at 59%
- Outcomes: 20 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $128

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Brodie | 62¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-trump-pardon-before-2027-donald-brodie-polymarket-0x836ddf4f19b2ea425a7b038249d07f67e68411e1d0736b1b27cd8d1e7c3b7be8 |
| Stefan Brodie | 59¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-trump-pardon-before-2027-stefan-brodie-polymarket-0xa5037368e1c68fe7efb9361b57e5c010e701ff0bc6ee41fd7a98bc8f8cf866b1 |
| Daniel Penny | 53¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-trump-pardon-before-2027-daniel-penny-polymarket-0x25a847211096054f4e4b4a6a575ed7183da2ba692d9b97899742bdc6611a69ed |
| Bob Menendez | 42¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-trump-pardon-before-2027-bob-menendez-polymarket-0x0146bc6b56b60b7451fe1aa786f0f795390ba3fd2d454b005925fac454c2f831 |
| Steve Bannon | 24¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-trump-pardon-before-2027-steve-bannon-polymarket-0x4a869db910b4f8e3dc8e4b562889939b2ad272c8cef5914eadeb12fb6b979ad2 |
| Keonne Rodriguez | 24¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-trump-pardon-before-2027-keonne-rodriguez-polymarket-0x54701be7ec2f8ae91308ef7ca1e28720f74664e3d3dc446ceef76e86a785e579 |
| Ryan Salame | 14¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-trump-pardon-before-2027-ryan-salame-polymarket-0xbde10fc985687f35034b62df6cd50adbe835dcf08a36a93c4c695ed75777e32c |
| Hunter Biden | 11¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-trump-pardon-before-2027-hunter-biden-polymarket-0xcd4a8e578de8204cf31c57e509e507c81462b10ef0840d0495c737bd047edabb |
| Sam Bankman-Fried | 9¢ | +1pp | $128 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-trump-pardon-before-2027-sam-bankman-frie-polymarket-0x2c41ac56695e28bd7bca361bffde6977e6211406e19fb26ec98037661f23c35f |
| Julian Assange | 9¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-trump-pardon-before-2027-julian-assange-polymarket-0x507746b101b9b031567da9c5cb1bf714dac808299708020fc91a9fa6a6032978 |
| Eric Adams | 8¢ | −3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-trump-pardon-before-2027-eric-adams-polymarket-0x30efbe1580dacf2bf87a89bdb1015e3f3398f8bc7e4453210e83bbdbb0f621b9 |
| Roger Ver | 8¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-trump-pardon-before-2027-roger-ver-polymarket-0xb5052bf717633331a67703cec30c3506216a77176cd5d032dcffb04034f18d48 |
| Joe Exotic | 8¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-trump-pardon-before-2027-joe-exotic-polymarket-0xbb8c9abdefb768e1f5686f1274a96c4403fe801df50d3d84d1f886256705fc96 |
| Nicolas Maduro | 7¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-trump-pardon-before-2027-nicolas-maduro-polymarket-0x1b53ad65dae4809d3d1097bbcd6be1f44ba5cddd47be9ce21896722c7d79681a |
| Antoine Massey | 7¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-trump-pardon-before-2027-antoine-massey-polymarket-0xa351f017fc3e489eac1c02153cc22bd9d02c520e257b88177d3a1fe1d537ec93 |
| Young Thug | 7¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-trump-pardon-before-2027-young-thug-polymarket-0xaf3f06b4f26051357aa7086b5e58ef3d56a600a2da3122b3f8458077b80efec7 |
| Edward Snowden | 6¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-trump-pardon-before-2027-edward-snowden-polymarket-0x07d4883660832eb7b64be2f4dba5870eb3ff4ae764e79893d6f574eaa075f7cf |
| Derek Chauvin | 6¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-trump-pardon-before-2027-derek-chauvin-polymarket-0x354d0b717b2f83b620f34be00890b6dd4e93a9b7c7ad71d435db77eff868b91c |
| Himself | 5¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-trump-pardon-before-2027-himself-polymarket-0x6bc658b5fdfded234356308d971d7b93e2e92c48eff32144bc163b4a3da7277b |
| Elon Musk | 4¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-trump-pardon-before-2027-elon-musk-polymarket-0x63c7e65d0324c084b74b62f5c9109bd0b02570c6833cde0b959c911b6eb6be8b |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Donald Brodie | Stefan Brodie | Daniel Penny |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 49 | 50 | 45 |
| 2026-05-30 | 51 | 50 | 49 |
| 2026-06-06 | 57 | 53 | 49 |
| 2026-06-13 | 63 | 59 | 54 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-09 · Keonne Rodriguez +9pp 21→30¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-11 · Keonne Rodriguez −5pp 30→25¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-08 · Sam Bankman-Fried +4pp 8→12¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-11 · Bob Menendez −4pp 37→33¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-13 · Bob Menendez +4pp 34→38¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Daniel Penny will receive a presidential pardon before the end of 2026. The current 54% price suggests roughly even odds, though traders are distributed across multiple potential pardon recipients including Steve Bannon (24¢), Edward Snowden (28¢), and Ghislaine Maxwell (12¢). The probability would rise if Trump signals willingness to pardon politically controversial figures or if legal pressures on specific individuals intensify. It would fall if Trump announces a restrictive pardon policy or if prospective recipients' legal situations improve. The primary catalyst is any formal pardon announcement by the administration, which would immediately resolve the outcome and likely trigger cascading reassessment across related contracts.

### Key factors

- Daniel Penny's conviction status and whether his case remains subject to ongoing litigation or appeal that could influence pardon timing
- Trump administration's stated position on presidential clemency for controversial or high-profile figures versus routine criminal defendants
- Relative political cost-benefit calculations across the 20 named individuals, which may shift based on media coverage or public opinion developments
- Volume and pricing patterns across competing outcomes, with Edward Snowden at 28¢ and Steve Bannon at 24¢ suggesting market uncertainty about the administration's priorities
- Historical precedent from Trump's first term regarding pardon frequency and targets, and any changes in 2025-2026 behavior that would indicate shifting patterns

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/who-trump-pardon
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=who-trump-pardon
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

## License

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