# Who will Trump publicly praise by May 31

> Karoline Leavitt leads at 49%, runner-up 37% across 16 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 43 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/who-trump-publicly-praise-may-31
Updated: 2026-05-28T19:20:07.479Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-31

## Headline

- Leader: Karoline Leavitt at 49%
- Runner-up: Jesus at 37%
- Outcomes: 16 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (16 contracts)
- 24h volume: $88

## Bound contracts (16)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karoline Leavitt | 49¢ | +5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-trump-publicly-praise-by-may-31-karoline-polymarket-0xe8157a9459709a6b41ac7db35823c339d5bb0c678570ad8e86b8bfcc14b58101 |
| Jesus | 37¢ | −1pp | $8 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-trump-publicly-praise-by-may-31-jesus-polymarket-0x294c5ee2d5d2d6bc5d4714e05e8bd41df7af8924d40183e56e5b4b8c01d2c8a3 |
| Vladimir Putin | 30¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-trump-publicly-praise-by-may-31-vladimir-polymarket-0x85b68d0c78516624b80da4a98ba8296b7a040f9d0f32b4fb3064c5692855aed3 |
| Erika Kirk | 26¢ | −5pp | $5 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-trump-publicly-praise-by-may-31-erika-kir-polymarket-0x1b5bf920c72dcf9be9096276bd1473407ed1b75dd31e4177e0a7d21ab94e0928 |
| Kid Rock | 21¢ | −5pp | $6 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-trump-publicly-praise-by-may-31-kid-rock-polymarket-0x7ab45a90c513355ab221ef75feca289caf96e26f10bdea193350d2ebdb96efa0 |
| Oz Pearlman | 21¢ | −4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-trump-publicly-praise-by-may-31-oz-pearlm-polymarket-0x86d623600ec2a876f8bbb552f5c0a36ddaf0d9fe2dd3f2b29e2492fe312fe49c |
| Mark Rutte | 20¢ | −6pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-trump-publicly-praise-by-may-31-mark-rutt-polymarket-0x6a35d12f30005fd78d360fb87b94ab1f99c36756d70fe1f1d77e0477a4d34686 |
| Franklin Graham | 20¢ | −6pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-trump-publicly-praise-by-may-31-franklin-polymarket-0xd0be2a6172edf522d344720972c90f18bba0f8084c0cea2cdaaa6948be815b14 |
| William McKinley | 20¢ | −5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-trump-publicly-praise-by-may-31-william-m-polymarket-0xf17d3fee69d2224cdbaae0f81810f78227e84fe1a8b437085071500020d00b52 |
| Lee Greenwood | 19¢ | −5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-trump-publicly-praise-by-may-31-lee-green-polymarket-0xa5e0f8452c404e2e36a853745af561a1bf6898c8dee5278a1aa0db6f9d592f42 |
| Ronny Jackson | 18¢ | −6pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-trump-publicly-praise-by-may-31-ronny-jac-polymarket-0x02567842dbf50566b62220a556f5a36947c06fa2788bd781fa9e486f50d4367f |
| Weijia Jiang | 18¢ | −8pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-trump-publicly-praise-by-may-31-weijia-ji-polymarket-0x9eb45569a6b63197ff7a3811867ea5f56a599f52cb7c83c978b85b4a0d944b34 |
| Pope Leo XIV | 11¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-trump-publicly-praise-by-may-31-pope-leo-polymarket-0x37862fc34837643ff10c83b6d054aae83e97f99ce1552f97bd854704403c124b |
| Allah | 9¢ | +3pp | $52 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-trump-publicly-praise-by-may-31-allah-polymarket-0x6db7750759c507d4f4c8ea4c2b3c93d2b1c41fdd052cec4b58b7f9ab2565e81d |
| Hillary Clinton | 7¢ | +1pp | $17 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-trump-publicly-praise-by-may-31-hillary-c-polymarket-0x1c8fa360d69fa6bd7e62984b6f140164fcb9257be545f3e1e7febe72e69570a9 |
| Joe Biden | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-trump-publicly-praise-by-may-31-joe-biden-polymarket-0x4891f328044a50ff6415326cf43bcaf00cc7bf436824ce5631f53a574932fbfb |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Karoline Leavitt | Jesus | Vladimir Putin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | 48 | 21 | 41 |
| 2026-05-25 | 50 | 26 | 41 |
| 2026-05-26 | 48 | 26 | 31 |
| 2026-05-27 | 45 | 36 | 30 |
| 2026-05-28 | 50 | 35 | 28 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-26 · William McKinley −14pp 42→28¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-26 · Kid Rock −13pp 43→30¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-26 · Mark Rutte −13pp 42→29¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-26 · Oz Pearlman −13pp 43→30¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-26 · Erika Kirk −12pp 40→28¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market estimates the likelihood that Donald Trump will make a public statement praising a specific individual between now and May 31, 2026—roughly one week away. The current 48% probability reflects meaningful uncertainty about whether Trump will issue such praise in this narrow timeframe. The outcome hinges on Trump's public communication patterns and whether he mentions any of the named individuals favorably in interviews, social media posts, or official statements. The tight six-day window means the resolution depends entirely on Trump's spontaneous or planned public remarks during this period. With zero trading volume on these contracts, the pricing may not reflect recent shifts in expectations or breaking news that could influence Trump's public statements.

### Key factors

- Time window is 6 days remaining (May 25-31), creating a compressed probability space where daily activity matters substantially
- No trading volume in past 24 hours suggests thin liquidity and potentially stale price signals that may not reflect current expectations
- The leading contracts (Ronny Jackson at 42¢, Erika Kirk at 43¢) suggest market participants are pricing multiple plausible outcomes rather than consensus on a single individual
- Trump's public communication frequency and style determine the baseline probability—higher activity increases chances someone gets mentioned favorably
- Resolution depends on literal public praise language; unclear whether threshold includes casual mentions, retweets, or only explicit endorsements

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/who-trump-publicly-praise-may-31
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=who-trump-publicly-praise-may-31
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

## License

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