# Who will be UFC Pound-For-Pound #1 at the end of 2026

> Alexandre Pantoja leads at 49%, runner-up 48% across 12 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/who-ufc-poundforpound-1
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:42.625Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Alexandre Pantoja at 49%
- Runner-up: Islam Makhachev at 48%
- Outcomes: 12 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (12 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (12)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandre Pantoja | 49¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-be-ufc-pound-for-pound-1-at-the-end-of-20-polymarket-0x46ab9197a96b0b35953da0f149105b207c7aeebf4181bbdb65af12b70f86efc3 |
| Islam Makhachev | 48¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-be-ufc-pound-for-pound-1-at-the-end-of-20-polymarket-0x9b3ff16ebc543209f5abff218069a06ec11b9d052ccdecc24dd4083cf5a042fd |
| Ilia Topuria | 47¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-be-ufc-pound-for-pound-1-at-the-end-of-20-polymarket-0x6e26904c44dc16d1a7e3c8e2734fa17397e262357ac81156c17968355239f54a |
| Tom Aspinall | 47¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-be-ufc-pound-for-pound-1-at-the-end-of-20-polymarket-0x41e6944c1669fb804232b361e0510b4b11e8dd958e9a8914dd2ffca2c00ab16f |
| Dricus Du Plessis | 45¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-be-ufc-pound-for-pound-1-at-the-end-of-20-polymarket-0x25e2b0cac365ab0998dc9715ae5212134061efcad2df33a349c446d61ec77ab0 |
| Joshua Van | 44¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-be-ufc-pound-for-pound-1-at-the-end-of-20-polymarket-0x384ab02243b09b01a76fa493b70b5007eb0ef1a9d93200b7180951be7054c0a8 |
| Jack Della Maddalena | 42¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-be-ufc-pound-for-pound-1-at-the-end-of-20-polymarket-0xf149cbeff5f2b190852250910c2a5d8f5a7cdada4b4e2187075e3ee0c2fbb813 |
| Khamzat Chimaev | 26¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-be-ufc-pound-for-pound-1-at-the-end-of-20-polymarket-0x5b130122908f844a46bbf3aaa13525774e9885af5b974b4ab6fb84935363afd6 |
| Alex Pereira | 25¢ | +8pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-be-ufc-pound-for-pound-1-at-the-end-of-20-polymarket-0x110a8f5a20d371f0e7a467630d57b0e4134f6a8999e00c70baef054af8bc2ebd |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 18¢ | −4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-be-ufc-pound-for-pound-1-at-the-end-of-20-polymarket-0x6fa64a876063afa529249b98ee2f0050f2d4c52034f87d58ce58ec71bd0b034d |
| Arman Tsarukyan | 8¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-be-ufc-pound-for-pound-1-at-the-end-of-20-polymarket-0x19e5ecbb5075496a77f028b5ab4ee4005d6c9ef7edb75887427cb20c4b47c542 |
| Merab Dvalishvili | 7¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-be-ufc-pound-for-pound-1-at-the-end-of-20-polymarket-0x932322aa894e0e4ed1832f42dec0991c4654675b14cbcf6abefa2a57dac9a071 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Alexandre Pantoja | Islam Makhachev | Ilia Topuria |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 20 | 52 | 25 |
| 2026-04-25 | 29 | 40 | — |
| 2026-04-26 | 29 | 42 | 36 |
| 2026-05-02 | 32 | 48 | 46 |
| 2026-05-08 | 42 | 49 | 47 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Dricus Du Plessis +32pp 10→42¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Dricus Du Plessis −30pp 40→10¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Alexandre Pantoja +24pp 19→43¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Alex Pereira −21pp 46→25¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Jack Della Maddalena +18pp 11→29¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This outcome reflects market estimates for which fighter will hold the top pound-for-pound ranking at year-end 2026. The 50% probability assigned to the leading contract indicates substantial uncertainty about the answer, with a runner-up scenario priced at 46%. The market appears to be pricing in multiple potential paths: a middleweight champion (Khamzat Chimaev currently favored at 72¢ in related Polymarket contracts) could plausibly reach pound-for-pound #1, as could top lightweights like Arman Tsarukyan. Upsets and injuries would materially shift probabilities. The main uncertainty driver is UFC rankings methodology and upcoming title fights—particularly middleweight and lightweight championship bouts—which will determine who holds elite division titles heading into 2027. Major fights or injuries between now and December 2026 will serve as the primary resolution signal.

### Key factors

- UFC's official pound-for-pound ranking criteria weight active title holders and recent competition; the leading middleweight contenders (Chimaev, Strickland) have the highest individual contract prices, suggesting market belief in middleweight dominance of P4P rankings
- Current UFC title holders and recent title challengers in elite divisions (lightweight, middleweight, welterweight) will almost certainly occupy top P4P slots; Arman Tsarukyan's 20¢ price reflects his lightweight title relevance
- The 50% leading contract vs. 46% runner-up spread indicates genuine two-way competition rather than consensus, suggesting the outcome depends on specific fight results and title changes between now and year-end 2026
- Injury or inactivity by top contenders could shift rankings dramatically; a fighter's P4P ranking can rise or fall based on both wins and opponents' performances
- The 8-contract structure fragments probability across multiple scenarios; no single fighter has overwhelming consensus, implying several legitimate paths to pound-for-pound #1 status

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

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