# Who visited Epstein's Island

> Deepak Chopra leads at 9%, runner-up 6% across 8 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/who-visited-epsteins-island
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:44.356Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Leader: Deepak Chopra at 9%
- Runner-up: Woody Allen at 6%
- Outcomes: 8 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $747

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deepak Chopra | 9¢ | +1pp | $6 | polymarket | /markets/who-visited-epsteins-island-deepak-chopra-polymarket-0x2fe12a74d09b45279f16cc4f90b50432250d7f7dc7614ef590447d3109e9386f |
| Woody Allen | 6¢ | −2pp | $46 | polymarket | /markets/who-visited-epsteins-island-woody-allen-polymarket-0xf0d4497256b9de806bcdce789fc490102fa15b43231d509237ef93f39a7b0c6c |
| Steve Bannon | 6¢ | ±0 | $14 | polymarket | /markets/who-visited-epsteins-island-steve-bannon-polymarket-0xf913e9ae82d712931341b86f3c4af2fa2bc339e79d42a76cac2e6c636b8a09e4 |
| Kevin Spacey | 4¢ | −1pp | $673 | polymarket | /markets/who-visited-epsteins-island-kevin-spacey-polymarket-0xa38abe7921e1a335541afc488b6eb046c71c203f166fa0b5281d4491f8ac7577 |
| Harvey Weinstein | 4¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-visited-epsteins-island-harvey-weinstein-polymarket-0x17a4f0413f070b4092d03904a7f22260ab9ff51a929cb970a09eea469a31f329 |
| Jay-Z | 3¢ | ±0 | $8 | polymarket | /markets/who-visited-epsteins-island-jay-z-polymarket-0x5ee101a78c5c63194c179f719477f0f302635cbe571c16f3329ad82fbc9a8038 |
| Steven Tisch | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-visited-epsteins-island-steven-tisch-polymarket-0x4f781e445f8b46b222a39f2afdc58a3f983a41c6b39596df7111a2dfccc8d5c1 |
| Peter Attia | 3¢ | −7pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-visited-epsteins-island-peter-attia-polymarket-0x2ac10377aa8ca26384aa5714b2ff891856d91414cdf651cc841a5b155390dc88 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Deepak Chopra | Woody Allen | Steve Bannon |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 13 | 11 | 14 |
| 2026-04-23 | 7 | — | 10 |
| 2026-04-24 | 6 | 9 | — |
| 2026-04-25 | 6 | — | — |
| 2026-05-01 | 5 | 9 | 8 |
| 2026-05-02 | — | 12 | 8 |
| 2026-05-03 | — | 10 | — |
| 2026-05-08 | 10 | — | 7 |

_22 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Peter Attia −7pp 11→4¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Woody Allen +3pp 9→12¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Deepak Chopra +3pp 6→9¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This represents a 10% probability that Woody Allen visited Epstein's Island, based on aggregated contract prices across prediction markets. The current level reflects limited public evidence directly linking Allen to the island, though historical associations and media speculation provide some signal. Key drivers include documentary releases, legal proceedings, or credible witness testimony that could establish presence records. The probability could shift significantly if new court documents are unsealed, investigative journalism surfaces flight logs, or corroborating testimonies emerge during ongoing litigation. Near-term uncertainty hinges on whether major media outlets publish verified information before summer 2026, as evidenced by the high volume on the SNL Weekend Update contract predicting on-air mention of the topic.

### Key factors

- No publicly verified flight logs or photographic evidence has definitively placed Woody Allen on Epstein's Island as of May 2026
- Historical associations between Allen and Epstein social circles have been documented but do not confirm island visitation
- Pending litigation and investigation-related document releases could surface new evidence; timing and content remain uncertain
- Media attention cycles and investigative journalism output will likely determine if new testimony or records reach public knowledge in the coming months
- The 10% probability implies markets assign roughly 9-to-1 odds against this claim versus other named individuals in the contract set

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/who-visited-epsteins-island
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=who-visited-epsteins-island

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.