# Who will win Chopped Castaways

> Jean-Paul Bourgeois leads at 70%, runner-up 22% across 10 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 35 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/who-win-chopped-castaways
Updated: 2026-05-29T23:20:10.726Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-31

## Headline

- Leader: Jean-Paul Bourgeois at 70%
- Runner-up: Stephen Kina at 22%
- Outcomes: 10 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Paul Bourgeois | 70¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-win-chopped-castaways-jean-paul-bourgeois-polymarket-0x0385fa16d11390be7090f3d2c6c65540f5ecf36d5e74d434f536c031140cd45b |
| Stephen Kina | 22¢ | +5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-win-chopped-castaways-stephen-kina-polymarket-0x28de13f15fdb5a89b445233acac31bf3ae4f5e88efee7c650b13d21fcf499bca |
| Paulette Tejada | 7¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-win-chopped-castaways-paulette-tejada-polymarket-0x001508d963419721d6bf4146f49923756acae4c34acace6525d3c9b092b598b4 |
| Sunny Moody | 5¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-win-chopped-castaways-sunny-moody-polymarket-0xd1dfd347db44fabb8ebe6431b425205cf111fafeec2717b4a3884d120d7e3511 |
| Logan Sandoval | 5¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-win-chopped-castaways-logan-sandoval-polymarket-0xe5edebb0dbca6ae9b2a9ed49901ef1b5ba68f0a3d5b87f50870c44dcf2de42e8 |
| Hannah Flora | 4¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-win-chopped-castaways-hannah-flora-polymarket-0x246ba2f2915cb41a8ce02a274a052e78b3b4817cdd7355fcc845520d0d0cb28a |
| Carrie Baird | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-win-chopped-castaways-carrie-baird-polymarket-0x3acef8b7ac0737995a6de8fad8c534f855d30a583aac79afba67b9636132f1bc |
| Ara Zada | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-win-chopped-castaways-ara-zada-polymarket-0xba0736d9d3aef894bfc8a3dc6de28a06315bdf37c8785ff2e965973d66aac0ca |
| Dwight Hudgins | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-win-chopped-castaways-dwight-hudgins-polymarket-0xe846d0c40f010b7d16d35217f83528281023103db310e202d63cd02103a05e7c |
| James Peck | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-win-chopped-castaways-james-peck-polymarket-0xf6c822c4b2f15735379cc7ed139a98aeeb95896bfe52bf531100bcaf9279135f |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Jean-Paul Bourgeois | Stephen Kina | Paulette Tejada |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | 67 | 21 | 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | 67 | 22 | 7 |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-27 · Jean-Paul Bourgeois −11pp 76→65¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-26 · Jean-Paul Bourgeois +5pp 71→76¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-28 · Stephen Kina −5pp 22→17¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-29 · Stephen Kina +5pp 17→22¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-25 · Jean-Paul Bourgeois +4pp 67→71¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

Jean-Paul Bourgeois is priced as a 73% favorite to win the upcoming Chopped Castaways competition, based on aggregated predictions across 12 separate contracts. This probability reflects traders' assessment that Bourgeois has a substantially higher likelihood of victory compared to other competitors. The market shows considerable confidence in this outcome relative to the runner-up at 22%, though the remaining field splits roughly 5% across lower-priced contenders including Paulette Tejada, Ara Zada, Sunny Moody, Cate Meade, and Dwight Hudgins. The resolution will depend on the competition's actual results when Chopped Castaways airs. Key factors likely influencing the pricing include participants' demonstrated cooking skills in prior performances, their strategic strengths in survival or adaptation contexts, and any publicly available information about the competitive dynamics among this specific cast.

### Key factors

- Jean-Paul Bourgeois maintains 3.3x the implied probability of the second-place contender, suggesting market participants perceive a material skill or strategic advantage
- Paulette Tejada (5¢) is the highest-priced challenger among remaining competitors, with 24-hour trading volume matching lower-tier favorites, indicating some trader disagreement on the consensus ranking
- The combined probability of all non-Bourgeois outcomes totals approximately 27%, representing meaningful residual uncertainty despite the strong favorite pricing
- Trading volume remains modest ($120+ across top contracts in 24 hours), suggesting limited market participation may increase sensitivity to new information about contestant backgrounds or competition format
- Cate Meade, Dwight Hudgins, and Ara Zada are all priced at or below 6¢, indicating the market assigns negligible winning probability to most of the field

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

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