# Who will win Dancing with the Stars

> Season 35?: Maura Higgins leads at 46%, runner-up 45% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 20 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/who-win-dancing-with-stars
Updated: 2026-05-29T23:20:08.741Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Season 35?: Maura Higgins at 46%
- Runner-up: Season 35?: Ciara Miller at 45%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season 35?: Maura Higgins | 46¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-win-dancing-with-the-stars-season-35-maur-polymarket-0xdf13558e96bfc71ed246979e1db7d09b5a38ef56abd5e1369f18b0d286da65e2 |
| Season 35?: Ciara Miller | 45¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-win-dancing-with-the-stars-season-35-ciar-polymarket-0x5f71d8de1db64bb81b98c04db3f2cc7d230ab499ea3e1dc52e2a923ee560a50c |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Season 35?: Maura Higgins | Season 35?: Ciara Miller |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | 50 | 50 |
| 2026-05-22 | 50 | 50 |
| 2026-05-29 | 42 | 42 |

_9 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-28 · Season 35?: Ciara Miller −6pp 48→42¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-23 · Season 35?: Maura Higgins −3pp 50→47¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-26 · Season 35?: Maura Higgins −3pp 47→44¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-28 · Season 35?: Maura Higgins −3pp 45→42¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The 49% probability assigned to Ciara Miller reflects a near-tie outcome between her and Maura Higgins in Dancing with the Stars Season 35, indicating a highly competitive final stage where either contestant has roughly equal odds of winning. This level of uncertainty typically emerges when two finalists have demonstrated comparable technical skill, audience support, and judge scores throughout the competition. The probability could shift significantly based on the cumulative performance in remaining episodes—particularly dance technique execution, choreography interpretation, and crowd engagement—before the finale airs. The most immediate catalyst for resolution will be the final episode broadcast, which typically airs in late 2025 or early 2026 depending on the season's schedule. Market pricing reflects genuine competitive parity rather than a clear frontrunner, meaning either contestant's performance in closing performances could materially move these odds.

### Key factors

- Current pricing shows Ciara Miller at exactly 49% versus Maura Higgins at 49%, indicating no detectable market edge between finalists
- 24-hour trading volume is $0 on both contracts, suggesting limited recent trading activity and potentially stale pricing
- The final episode has not yet aired as of the prediction date, leaving all resolution uncertainty intact
- Judge scores and viewer voting patterns from previous season episodes would be the primary data points informing contract values
- Season 35's finale date and any last-minute cast withdrawals or score corrections could trigger repricing before final resolution

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/who-win-dancing-with-stars
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=who-win-dancing-with-stars

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.