# Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal

> Hong Wang leads at 76%, runner-up 67% across 11 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 10 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/who-win-fields-medal
Updated: 2026-06-17T01:20:18.587Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-30

## Headline

- Leader: Hong Wang at 76%
- Runner-up: Jacob Tsimerman at 67%
- Outcomes: 11 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (11 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (11)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hong Wang | 76¢ | +1pp | $1K | polymarket | /markets/who-will-win-the-2026-fields-medal-hong-wang-polymarket-0xd74fcb17049c77b2e4312931de0c8d6c06ca28e23645cfd19772a142a92c88fe |
| Jacob Tsimerman | 67¢ | −11pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-win-the-2026-fields-medal-jacob-tsimerman-polymarket-0xb7867ccbeebaaa4a51278c4b7bb08c5d7de8e5d4e48f6150f03cc776dce2f817 |
| Yu Deng | 55¢ | −3pp | $398 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-win-the-2026-fields-medal-yu-deng-polymarket-0xce361643116d65999278058d79744d37ba0a9ef6c439e095df21716bdd5d949f |
| Vesselin Dimitrov | 50¢ | −4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-win-the-2026-fields-medal-vesselin-dimitr-polymarket-0x6e90e6efe2dccfe6a4ddebd2f627cb5820b939ae5aec94906f0500881a0748a7 |
| John Pardon | 46¢ | +6pp | $33 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-win-the-2026-fields-medal-john-pardon-polymarket-0xdef79aab7ed2ea2b1cf53f2c20d353380ff1583eb7e4b29109dc7c667f0d298f |
| Aleksandr Logunov | 33¢ | −2pp | $1 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-win-the-2026-fields-medal-aleksandr-logun-polymarket-0xc8fd0988416e7299aaf762cf3c6c7a83e5c0ef4093e927ee48b1a85fe8062942 |
| Jack Thorne | 27¢ | −2pp | $11 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-win-the-2026-fields-medal-jack-thorne-polymarket-0x31ff4152662e8e50faff8ad80ff5561054753b27a5a4801aa95d3b08ccd2494e |
| Sam Raskin | 24¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-win-the-2026-fields-medal-sam-raskin-polymarket-0x7014fc8058f02a7acc7cb0051a24d75bdbcf08db04392e119ceacf3e791c9e43 |
| Alexander Efimov | 23¢ | +4pp | $1 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-win-the-2026-fields-medal-alexander-efimo-polymarket-0x8a8a885a2d36304757780431ebf620f4a31ab78a254020cb0f6300f9de81bed3 |
| Julian Sahasrabudhe | 23¢ | −2pp | $1 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-win-the-2026-fields-medal-julian-sahasrab-polymarket-0xaec72d4f87e99615a333176329a7f62310eb68e3a32c1b73a882a9110ccd254c |
| Will Sawin | 14¢ | −2pp | $1 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-win-the-2026-fields-medal-will-sawin-polymarket-0xf7a786e2562ac4087406521ed0b1cea006949ac070e2aa3f5c443a53427a1be7 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Hong Wang | Jacob Tsimerman | Yu Deng |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | 62 | 61 | 33 |
| 2026-06-03 | 84 | 71 | 50 |
| 2026-06-10 | 80 | 69 | 49 |
| 2026-06-14 | 82 | 82 | 61 |
| 2026-06-16 | — | 70 | 64 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-12 · Yu Deng +16pp 49→65¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-16 · Jacob Tsimerman −11pp 81→70¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-12 · Jack Thorne −10pp 46→36¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-13 · Jack Thorne −9pp 36→27¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-14 · Jack Thorne +8pp 27→35¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The 2026 Fields Medal will be awarded in July 2026 to a mathematician under 40 for outstanding mathematical achievement. Hong Wang currently has the highest implied probability at 81%, suggesting strong consensus among traders that he is the frontrunner, though John Pardon (41¢) and Jacob Tsimerman (63¢) represent meaningful alternative outcomes. Prices shift as new mathematical publications emerge, conference presentations occur, and the Fields Medal Committee's evaluation process advances toward the July award ceremony. The resolution date is fixed: the International Congress of Mathematicians in 2026, when the Medal Committee will announce the winners. Until then, prices may adjust based on new research announcements, peer recognition, or changes in how traders weight recent accomplishments against career trajectory.

### Key factors

- Hong Wang trades at 82¢ versus John Pardon at 41¢, indicating a significant but not overwhelming market consensus; the largest single-contract volume ($22 in 24h) is on Pardon, suggesting live disagreement
- The next Fields Medal announcement is scheduled for July 2026 at the International Congress of Mathematicians; no earlier public decision or preliminary shortlist is expected
- Recent high-impact mathematics publications, conference talks, or collaborative breakthroughs could shift prices for any of the top five candidates
- Jacob Tsimerman at 63¢ and Yu Deng at 38¢ remain in contention; combined they represent meaningful non-Hong Wang probability
- The 10-contract structure means each trader outcome is bound; prices reflect expected probability conditional on that person winning, not joint probabilities across candidates

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

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