# Who will Zendaya wear at the Met Gala

> Closed. Last odds frozen 2 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/who-zendaya-wear-met-gala
Updated: 2026-05-06T06:50:43.415Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-04

## Headline

- Leader: Schiaparelli at 26%
- Runner-up: Alexander McQueen at 17%
- Outcomes: 8 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Schiaparelli | 26¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-zendaya-wear-at-the-met-gala-schiaparelli-polymarket-0xbad218c931d06f02e4a0e6cf273a4439885bfeb64ab1250ce3d28b00672208a3 |
| Alexander McQueen | 17¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-zendaya-wear-at-the-met-gala-alexander-mc-polymarket-0x5f2f1a80e689f05af8980ef7e9ab856b5c777da3f81e70c61dcf7275b23424e7 |
| Tiffany & Co. | 15¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-zendaya-wear-at-the-met-gala-tiffany-co-polymarket-0x66d74812ee0f10b7d5889aa5056b0f62865a704eda2c54ec8ec692d2536bab27 |
| Valentino | 13¢ | +15pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-zendaya-wear-at-the-met-gala-valentino-polymarket-0x98ac7fef4200036671f81fa6718423bf901cd07c25d0e76a5a09558493c6b551 |
| Balmain & Olivier Rousteing | 11¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-zendaya-wear-at-the-met-gala-balmain-oliv-polymarket-0x8132c7ce9e04d0f591b4ac76ff39c15e60458f2e6dfdeaf99abe81d6d9e10026 |
| Loewe | 11¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-zendaya-wear-at-the-met-gala-loewe-polymarket-0xa3b32cebb69ff45dd921c7a07c02c8773d84c6aa7c91b5de12d26a4b39928858 |
| Versace | 3¢ | −46pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-zendaya-wear-at-the-met-gala-versace-polymarket-0x333c2d3766def3f9cfcb6e8e606dd189a05f3c667baa825c3cebe6d20196c7ac |
| Dolce & Gabbana | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-zendaya-wear-at-the-met-gala-dolce-gabban-polymarket-0x5de702099b345764c81c638b8679763f68cf7441d0443c393ca27a3994f6627e |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Schiaparelli | Alexander McQueen | Tiffany & Co. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | — | 49 | 26 |
| 2026-05-02 | 46 | 46 | 24 |
| 2026-05-03 | 49 | 49 | 24 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Versace −46pp 50→4¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Valentino +15pp 33→48¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Valentino +5pp 28→33¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Loewe +3pp 46→49¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Alexander McQueen −3pp 49→46¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This represents the market's assessment of the likelihood that a specific designer will dress Zendaya at the upcoming Met Gala. The current 50% probability reflects genuine uncertainty about her choice, with limited public signals about her designer preference for this event. The main drivers of this probability are Zendaya's past fashion relationships with design houses, any pre-event styling announcements, and broader trends in luxury fashion partnerships. The uncertainty will resolve definitively when Zendaya arrives at the Met Gala and her outfit is publicly documented and confirmed. Current trading volume remains modest, suggesting limited consensus among market participants on which designer outcome is most likely. The competing 50% runner-up outcome indicates the market views at least two potential designer choices as equally plausible given available information.

### Key factors

- Zendaya's historical designer relationships and previous Met Gala appearances provide precedent for predicting brand alignment
- Public statements from Zendaya, her stylist, or designer representatives before the event would significantly shift probability estimates
- The Met Gala's theme and timing relative to designer fashion calendars influence likelihood of specific brand partnerships
- Trading volume and contract pricing across related Polymarket contracts suggest limited market confidence in any single outcome
- The event date and official attendance confirmation remain critical catalysts for resolving uncertainty and validating the winning contract

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/who-zendaya-wear-met-gala
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=who-zendaya-wear-met-gala

## License

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