# Will Joseph Aoun visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 36% across 20 contracts — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/whvisit
Updated: 2026-05-03T12:05:49.871Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 36% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $666

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xi Jinping | 58¢ | +4pp | $441 | kalshi | /markets/will-xi-jinping-visit-the-white-house-before-jan-1-kalshi-kxwhvisit-27-xjin |
| Joe Biden | 4¢ | +1pp | $119 | kalshi | /markets/will-joe-biden-visit-the-white-house-before-jan-1-kalshi-kxwhvisit-27-jbid |
| Vladimir Putin | 16¢ | ±0 | $54 | kalshi | /markets/will-vladimir-putin-visit-the-white-house-before-j-kalshi-kxwhvisit-27-vput |
| Gavin Newsom | 24¢ | −1pp | $20 | kalshi | /markets/will-gavin-newsom-visit-the-white-house-before-jan-kalshi-kxwhvisit-27-gnew |
| Barack Obama | 8¢ | +1pp | $15 | kalshi | /markets/will-barack-obama-visit-the-white-house-before-jan-kalshi-kxwhvisit-27-obam |
| Bill Maher | 18¢ | ±0 | $13 | kalshi | /markets/will-bill-maher-visit-the-white-house-before-jan-1-kalshi-kxwhvisit-27-bmah |
| Reza Pahlavi | 24¢ | ±0 | $3 | kalshi | /markets/will-reza-pahlavi-visit-the-white-house-before-jan-kalshi-kxwhvisit-27-rpah |
| John Ternus | 32¢ | ±0 | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-john-ternus-visit-the-white-house-before-jan-kalshi-kxwhvisit-27-jter |
| Eric Adams | 16¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-eric-adams-visit-the-white-house-before-jan-1-kalshi-kxwhvisit-27-eada |
| Mark Carney | 70¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mark-carney-visit-the-white-house-before-jan-kalshi-kxwhvisit-27-mcar |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | 10¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-marjorie-taylor-greene-visit-the-white-house-kalshi-kxwhvisit-27-mtg |
| Hakeem Jeffries | 64¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-hakeem-jeffries-visit-the-white-house-before-kalshi-kxwhvisit-27-hjef |
| Elon Musk | 74¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-elon-musk-visit-the-white-house-before-jan-1-kalshi-kxwhvisit-27-emus |
| Cristiano Ronaldo | 17¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cristiano-ronaldo-visit-the-white-house-befor-kalshi-kxwhvisit-27-cron |
| Mark Zuckerberg | 73¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mark-zuckerberg-visit-the-white-house-before-kalshi-kxwhvisit-27-mzuc |
| Pope Leo XIV | 5¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-pope-leo-xiv-visit-the-white-house-before-jan-kalshi-kxwhvisit-27-pleo |
| Jerome Powell | 11¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jerome-powell-visit-the-white-house-before-ja-kalshi-kxwhvisit-27-jpow |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 68¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-volodymyr-zelenskyy-visit-the-white-house-bef-kalshi-kxwhvisit-27-vzel |
| Claudia Sheinbaum | 55¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-claudia-sheinbaum-visit-the-white-house-befor-kalshi-kxwhvisit-27-cshe |
| Sam Altman | 77¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sam-altman-visit-the-white-house-before-jan-1-kalshi-kxwhvisit-27-sama |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 52 |
| 2026-04-19 | 52 |
| 2026-04-26 | 43 |
| 2026-05-03 | 24 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-26 · John Ternus −21pp 62→41¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-29 · Sam Altman −9pp 87→78¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-27 · John Ternus −7pp 41→34¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Xi Jinping +4pp 49→53¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-27 · Xi Jinping −3pp 50→47¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract measures the likelihood that Joseph Aoun, president of Northeastern University, will visit the White House before the end of 2026. At 36%, the market assigns this outcome roughly one-in-three odds. The probability reflects uncertainty about whether Aoun would be invited for an official event or meeting during the remaining eight months of 2026. Key drivers include Aoun's public profile and any scheduled White House convocations involving university leaders, such as education policy forums or research initiatives. The market data shows limited trading volume ($768 across 18 contracts), suggesting relatively low confidence in the probability estimate. Resolution depends on whether an official visit occurs and is publicly documented before January 1, 2027. Similar contracts show wide variation—Xi Jinping trades at 58 cents while Joe Biden trades at 4 cents—indicating different base rates for different types of visitors.

### Key factors

- Aoun's current role as Northeastern University president and whether education sector leadership meetings at the White House are scheduled in 2026
- Frequency of university president visits to the White House in comparable historical periods and current White House engagement patterns with academic institutions
- Public announcements or reports of official White House events specifically inviting Aoun or Northeastern representatives before December 31, 2026
- Trading volume and volatility in this contract relative to other visitor contracts, suggesting market confidence levels in the probability
- Whether Aoun has any current policy role or public profile that would warrant a White House visit beyond routine academic engagements

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/whvisit
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=whvisit
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

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