# Will Wisconsin's corn for grain yield per harvested acre for 2026 be above 180 bu/acre

> Above 164 bu/acre leads at 97%, runner-up 95% across 9 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wicornyield
Updated: 2026-08-24T13:20:50.759Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-31

## Headline

- Leader: Above 164 bu/acre at 97%
- Runner-up: Above 168 bu/acre at 95%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 164 bu/acre | 97¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-wisconsins-corn-for-grain-yield-per-harvested-kalshi-kxwicornyield-27jan31-t164 |
| Above 168 bu/acre | 95¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-wisconsins-corn-for-grain-yield-per-harvested-kalshi-kxwicornyield-27jan31-t168 |
| Above 172 bu/acre | 92¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-wisconsins-corn-for-grain-yield-per-harvested-kalshi-kxwicornyield-27jan31-t172 |
| Above 176 bu/acre | 84¢ | +5pp | $725 | kalshi | /markets/will-wisconsins-corn-for-grain-yield-per-harvested-kalshi-kxwicornyield-27jan31-t176 |
| Above 180 bu/acre | 71¢ | +3pp | $426 | kalshi | /markets/will-wisconsins-corn-for-grain-yield-per-harvested-kalshi-kxwicornyield-27jan31-t180 |
| Above 184 bu/acre | 50¢ | −3pp | $178 | kalshi | /markets/will-wisconsins-corn-for-grain-yield-per-harvested-kalshi-kxwicornyield-27jan31-t184 |
| Above 188 bu/acre | 22¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-wisconsins-corn-for-grain-yield-per-harvested-kalshi-kxwicornyield-27jan31-t188 |
| Above 192 bu/acre | 12¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-wisconsins-corn-for-grain-yield-per-harvested-kalshi-kxwicornyield-27jan31-t192 |
| Above 196 bu/acre | 4¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-wisconsins-corn-for-grain-yield-per-harvested-kalshi-kxwicornyield-27jan31-t196 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 164 bu/acre | Above 168 bu/acre | Above 172 bu/acre |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | 94 | 91 | 86 |
| 2026-08-22 | — | 95 | 91 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-22 · Above 184 bu/acre +17pp 40→57¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-20 · Above 180 bu/acre +10pp 52→62¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-19 · Above 180 bu/acre +9pp 43→52¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-23 · Above 188 bu/acre −7pp 27→20¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-22 · Above 180 bu/acre +6pp 64→70¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Markets are pricing a 42% chance that Wisconsin's 2026 corn yield will exceed 180 bushels per acre. This represents a modest expectation relative to recent historical trends, reflecting uncertainty about weather conditions, pest pressure, and agronomic outcomes during the growing season. Yields typically vary based on summer rainfall, temperature patterns, soil conditions, and disease prevalence. The contract ladder shows declining probabilities for higher yield thresholds (34% for above 184 bu/acre, 21% for above 188), indicating market skepticism about exceptionally strong harvests. The outcome will be determined when the USDA releases its official Wisconsin corn yield estimate, typically in November 2026 after the harvest period concludes. Current probability levels suggest traders view 180 bu/acre as modestly above expected outcomes rather than a baseline scenario.

### Key factors

- Wisconsin's five-year average corn yield (2021-2025) was approximately 178-182 bu/acre; 180 bu/acre represents near-trend performance
- Midwest weather patterns from July through September 2026 will be the primary driver of yield, particularly soil moisture availability and heat stress timing during grain fill
- USDA's official yield estimate release in November 2026 will provide the definitive resolution; this data is published before year-end
- The contract pricing ladder (42% above 180, 34% above 184, 21% above 188) reflects a distribution skewed toward moderate yields rather than exceptional harvests
- Historical volatility in Wisconsin yields ranges from approximately 160-195 bu/acre, establishing the biological feasibility of outcomes across the contract strike prices

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wicornyield
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wicornyield

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.