# Will the inclusion of hedgehog on the 2026 Bank of England wildlife shortlist be confirmed

> Hedgehog leads at 81%, runner-up 79% across 8 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 7 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wildsht
Updated: 2026-05-03T19:36:01.754Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-11-01

## Headline

- Leader: Hedgehog at 81%
- Runner-up: Red Squirrel at 79%
- Outcomes: 8 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $135

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hedgehog | 81¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-inclusion-of-hedgehog-on-the-2026-bank-of-kalshi-kxwildsht-26-hed |
| Red Squirrel | 79¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-inclusion-of-red-squirrel-on-the-2026-ban-kalshi-kxwildsht-26-red |
| Puffin | 75¢ | ±0 | $135 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-inclusion-of-puffin-on-the-2026-bank-of-e-kalshi-kxwildsht-26-puf |
| Otter | 68¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-inclusion-of-otter-on-the-2026-bank-of-en-kalshi-kxwildsht-26-ott |
| Robin | 64¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-inclusion-of-robin-on-the-2026-bank-of-en-kalshi-kxwildsht-26-rob |
| Badger | 63¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-inclusion-of-badger-on-the-2026-bank-of-e-kalshi-kxwildsht-26-bad |
| Kingfisher | 61¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-inclusion-of-kingfisher-on-the-2026-bank-kalshi-kxwildsht-26-kng |
| Fox | 54¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-inclusion-of-fox-on-the-2026-bank-of-engl-kalshi-kxwildsht-26-fox |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Hedgehog | Red Squirrel | Puffin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | — | 80 | 74 |
| 2026-04-14 | 82 | — | 75 |
| 2026-04-15 | 82 | 80 | 74 |
| 2026-04-18 | 78 | — | — |
| 2026-04-20 | 81 | 79 | 75 |
| 2026-04-23 | 82 | — | 74 |
| 2026-04-26 | — | — | 75 |
| 2026-04-30 | — | — | 75 |

_14 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market asks whether the Bank of England will officially confirm the hedgehog as part of its 2026 wildlife shortlist—a conservation-themed initiative the central bank is reportedly considering. At 81%, traders believe confirmation is more likely than not, suggesting relatively high conviction based on available evidence. The probability reflects expectations around the Bank's upcoming announcement timeline and any interim statements from officials. Upward pressure comes from conservation priorities and media advocacy; downward pressure would come from competing species candidates or delays in the selection process. The resolution depends entirely on the Bank of England's official public confirmation, which is the key event that will settle this market.

### Key factors

- Bank of England's stated conservation focus and any prior public signals about including small mammals on the shortlist
- Relative lobbying momentum for hedgehog versus other competing species (e.g., bees, otters, badgers) in shortlist consideration
- Timeline and official announcement date set by the Bank for revealing its 2026 wildlife shortlist selection
- Historical precedent: whether the Bank has previously included controversial or niche species in past conservation initiatives
- Recent hedgehog population and media coverage trends that may influence institutional decision-making

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wildsht
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wildsht

## License

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