# Will Wisconsin's annual-average manufacturing employment for 2026 be above 452,500 jobs

> Above 447,500 jobs leads at 96%, runner-up 92% across 7 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wimfgemp
Updated: 2026-08-24T13:20:50.772Z
Category: economy
Status: active
Closes: 2027-04-30

## Headline

- Leader: Above 447,500 jobs at 96%
- Runner-up: Above 450,000 jobs at 92%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $43K

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 447,500 jobs | 96¢ | — | $18K | kalshi | /markets/will-wisconsins-annual-average-manufacturing-emplo-kalshi-kxwimfgemp-27apr30-t447500 |
| Above 450,000 jobs | 92¢ | — | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-wisconsins-annual-average-manufacturing-emplo-kalshi-kxwimfgemp-27apr30-t450000 |
| Above 452,500 jobs | 82¢ | −1pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-wisconsins-annual-average-manufacturing-emplo-kalshi-kxwimfgemp-27apr30-t452500 |
| Above 455,000 jobs | 52¢ | +7pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-wisconsins-annual-average-manufacturing-emplo-kalshi-kxwimfgemp-27apr30-t455000 |
| Above 457,500 jobs | 30¢ | +2pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-wisconsins-annual-average-manufacturing-emplo-kalshi-kxwimfgemp-27apr30-t457500 |
| Above 460,000 jobs | 19¢ | −3pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-wisconsins-annual-average-manufacturing-emplo-kalshi-kxwimfgemp-27apr30-t460000 |
| Above 462,500 jobs | 5¢ | +2pp | $9K | kalshi | /markets/will-wisconsins-annual-average-manufacturing-emplo-kalshi-kxwimfgemp-27apr30-t462500 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 447,500 jobs | Above 450,000 jobs | Above 452,500 jobs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | — | — | 36 |
| 2026-08-19 | — | — | 75 |
| 2026-08-20 | — | — | 76 |
| 2026-08-23 | 97 | 92 | 75 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-19 · Above 452,500 jobs +39pp 36→75¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-24 · Above 455,000 jobs +7pp 40→47¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-23 · Above 460,000 jobs −3pp 14→11¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market is assessing whether Wisconsin's manufacturing workforce will average above 455,000 employees in 2026—a threshold that sits between modest growth and relative stability compared to recent years. The 37% probability reflects skepticism about reaching that employment level, suggesting market participants expect either flat or declining manufacturing jobs in the state. Key drivers include Wisconsin's exposure to automotive supply chains and industrial equipment sectors, which are sensitive to national economic growth and consumer demand. The market will resolve once Wisconsin reports its official annual average employment data for 2026, typically released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in early 2027. Current contract pricing shows declining confidence at higher employment thresholds, with only 10% probability assigned to exceeding 460,000 jobs, indicating consensus around a relatively constrained manufacturing employment environment.

### Key factors

- Wisconsin's automotive supply chain and equipment manufacturing sectors depend heavily on national vehicle production and capital investment cycles
- National manufacturing employment trends and regional economic conditions through late 2026 will significantly influence year-end workforce levels
- The official data source is BLS annual average employment figures for Wisconsin's manufacturing sector, reported with a lag in early 2027
- Contract pricing shows sharp probability drops at 5,000-job increments (37% at 455k, 25% at 457.5k, 10% at 460k), indicating tight expectations around a narrow range
- Recent Wisconsin manufacturing employment trends, supply chain disruptions, and Federal Reserve policy affecting business investment will be critical to final outcome

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wimfgemp
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wimfgemp

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