# Will Winds of Winter be announced?

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 11% across 1 contract — refreshed 24 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/winds-of-winter
Updated: 2026-06-08T08:20:11.683Z
Category: entertainment
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 11% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026? | 11¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-george-r-r-martin-announce-the-winds-of-winte-polymarket-0x2b97e33b577930315bdb95c195be7c8f5da9e67795aac5b32a7f89fc2bfe6954 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | 14 |
| 2026-05-25 | 11 |
| 2026-06-01 | 12 |
| 2026-06-08 | 12 |

_17 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/winds-of-winter
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=winds-of-winter

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.