# Will Amanda Bell be the Democratic nominee for WI-06

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 46% across 11 contracts — refreshed 27 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wiprimary
Updated: 2026-06-25T23:20:52.615Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 46% (liquidity-weighted across 11 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (11 contracts)
- 24h volume: $634

## Bound contracts (11)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katrina DeVille | 6¢ | — | $309 | kalshi | /markets/will-katrina-deville-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-kalshi-kxwiprimary-08d26-kdev |
| Kevin Hermening | 9¢ | −7pp | $115 | kalshi | /markets/will-kevin-hermening-be-the-republican-nominee-for-kalshi-kxwiprimary-07r26-kher |
| Ben Steinhoff | 5¢ | −1pp | $99 | kalshi | /markets/will-ben-steinhoff-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-w-kalshi-kxwiprimary-05d26-bste |
| Emily Berge | 29¢ | +1pp | $76 | kalshi | /markets/will-emily-berge-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-wi-kalshi-kxwiprimary-03d26-eber |
| Gwen Moore | 92¢ | +5pp | $18 | kalshi | /markets/will-gwen-moore-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-wi-0-kalshi-kxwiprimary-04d26-gmoo |
| Brad Smith | 87¢ | — | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-brad-smith-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-wi-0-kalshi-kxwiprimary-06d26-bsmi |
| Michael Alfonso | 79¢ | ±0 | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-michael-alfonso-be-the-republican-nominee-for-kalshi-kxwiprimary-07r26-malf |
| Peter Burgelis | 18¢ | +1pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-peter-burgelis-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-kalshi-kxwiprimary-01d26-pbur |
| Jessi Ebben | 4¢ | +1pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-jessi-ebben-be-the-republican-nominee-for-wi-kalshi-kxwiprimary-07r26-jebb |
| Mitchell Berman | 76¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mitchell-berman-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-kalshi-kxwiprimary-01d26-mber |
| Bryan Steil | 96¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bryan-steil-be-the-republican-nominee-for-wi-kalshi-kxwiprimary-01r26-bste |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-26 | 46 |
| 2026-06-11 | 15 |
| 2026-06-18 | 38 |
| 2026-06-25 | 57 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-22 · Kevin Hermening −7pp 14→7¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Gwen Moore +5pp 92→97¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Michael Alfonso +5pp 75→80¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the likelihood that Amanda Bell wins the Democratic primary election for Wisconsin's 6th congressional district. At 27%, the market views her as a competitive but not favored candidate among the potential Democratic nominees. Primary election outcomes depend heavily on candidate resources, name recognition, grassroots organization, and voter turnout patterns within the district. The probability could shift based on endorsements, campaign spending reports, polling data, or candidate entry/exit decisions. The Democratic primary election itself will definitively resolve this contract, with nomination determined at the state party convention or through a primary vote, depending on Wisconsin's 2026 nomination process. Between now and that date, candidates' fundraising announcements and organizational activities will likely trigger significant probability movements.

### Key factors

- Amanda Bell's fundraising totals and cash-on-hand compared to other declared or potential Democratic candidates in WI-06
- Endorsement patterns from local party officials, county organizations, or established state Democratic figures
- Public polling of Democratic primary voters in WI-06, if conducted, showing Bell's name recognition and support levels relative to competitors
- Candidate field composition—whether other strong candidates enter or withdraw from the Democratic primary
- Early voting or organizational indicators such as door-knocking campaigns, volunteer recruitment, or event turnout in the district

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wiprimary
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wiprimary
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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