# Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Winner

> Francesca Hong leads at 38%, runner-up 28% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 54 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wisconsin-governor-democratic-primary-winner
Updated: 2026-06-16T23:20:46.864Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-11

## Headline

- Leader: Francesca Hong at 38%
- Runner-up: Mandela Barnes at 28%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francesca Hong | 38¢ | −4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/wisconsin-governor-democratic-primary-winner-franc-polymarket-0x00925aafdbb3fbec14b49f343eb430ddb9cc1f827e5934b5513703d13f2851de |
| Mandela Barnes | 28¢ | −20pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/wisconsin-governor-democratic-primary-winner-mande-polymarket-0x0f1843cae1fa85c263c1f8118554fcff73f8af53d58d0f9fa5283490e69a7d94 |
| Sara Rodriguez | 26¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/wisconsin-governor-democratic-primary-winner-sara-polymarket-0x6bb7b47236aafe3cde3389214c31055abaa815b7170d9c12dcbea43b8a884925 |
| Missy Hughes | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/wisconsin-governor-democratic-primary-winner-missy-polymarket-0xe77345ea0ddb380b7a27d58325b85bf9783f69bb31fff33ec1d3d4ce3c1b5586 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Francesca Hong | Mandela Barnes | Sara Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | 33 | 49 | 14 |
| 2026-06-03 | 40 | 40 | 19 |
| 2026-06-10 | 32 | 53 | — |
| 2026-06-11 | 37 | 51 | 16 |
| 2026-06-15 | 51 | 19 | 25 |
| 2026-06-16 | 47 | — | 26 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-15 · Mandela Barnes −20pp 39→19¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-12 · Mandela Barnes −10pp 51→41¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-10 · Francesca Hong +6pp 26→32¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-13 · Francesca Hong +6pp 35→41¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-15 · Francesca Hong +6pp 45→51¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that a specific candidate will win Wisconsin's Democratic gubernatorial primary, currently priced at 40% compared to a 37% runner-up. The Democratic primary winner matters because Wisconsin is a swing state where the general election outcome often depends on the party nominee's viability and appeal to suburban and working-class voters. The current pricing likely reflects differences in candidate name recognition, organizational strength, and perceived electability in a general election matchup. The primary election date and any major candidate announcements, endorsements, or polling shifts would be key drivers of probability movement. Market participants are factoring in candidate funding levels, union support, and regional strength, though uncertainty remains relatively high given the close margin between leading candidates.

### Key factors

- Candidate fundraising totals and spending capacity relative to the leading competitor (data typically reported quarterly)
- Endorsements from established Democratic figures and labor unions, which signal organizational backing and voter mobilization capacity
- Polling data within Wisconsin showing candidate name recognition and favorability trends among Democratic primary voters
- Historical turnout patterns in Wisconsin Democratic primaries and candidate ability to activate base voters in key regions
- Timing of the primary election and any dropouts or late-entry candidates that could consolidate support

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wisconsin-governor-democratic-primary-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wisconsin-governor-democratic-primary-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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