# Wisconsin Governor Republican Primary Winner

> Tom Tiffany leads at 90%, runner-up 4% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wisconsin-governor-republican-primary-winner
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:39.342Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-11

## Headline

- Leader: Tom Tiffany at 90%
- Runner-up: Andy Manske at 4%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Tiffany | 90¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/wisconsin-governor-republican-primary-winner-tom-t-polymarket-0x12df229a62606175655181a6e8cbef0f037ac41612b61d67b0658dcf8633f397 |
| Andy Manske | 4¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/wisconsin-governor-republican-primary-winner-andy-polymarket-0x1677aaf33a808c6408e205c349095a6ef3236fda369133ba1cf67efed14c6d89 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Tom Tiffany | Andy Manske |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | 89 | 2 |
| 2026-04-25 | 89 | — |
| 2026-04-28 | 61 | 40 |
| 2026-05-02 | 90 | 6 |
| 2026-05-07 | 91 | 5 |
| 2026-05-08 | — | 4 |

_19 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Tom Tiffany +30pp 60→90¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 90% probability indicates market participants assess a strong likelihood that a specific Republican candidate will win Wisconsin's gubernatorial primary. The assessment reflects current polling, fundraising momentum, and endorsement patterns among Wisconsin GOP voters. The key driver maintaining this elevated level is the leading candidate's substantial polling advantage over challengers and established party support. Downside pressure could emerge from unexpected endorsements shifting to rivals, changes in voter sentiment captured in updated polls, or candidate missteps during the campaign period. The primary election date will be the critical resolution event, definitively determining the winner and settling all related contracts. Until then, market prices may adjust based on new polling data, debate performances, or campaign developments that alter perceptions of candidate viability.

### Key factors

- Current polling spread between the leading candidate and nearest rival; narrowing margins would reduce the probability
- Fundraising and cash-on-hand reports for top-tier candidates; gaps may indicate organizational strength disparities
- Endorsements from Wisconsin Republican Party leadership and major figures; shifts could signal changing frontrunner status
- Debate performance and media coverage intensity; high-profile gaffes or strong showings could shift market assessment
- Historical primary turnout patterns and demographic composition of Wisconsin GOP primary voters versus general election electorate

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wisconsin-governor-republican-primary-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wisconsin-governor-republican-primary-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.