# Will the U.S. withdraw from International Atomic Energy Agency before Jan 20, 2029

> World Trade Organization leads at 36%, runner-up 26% across 8 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/withdraw
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:23.158Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2029-01-20

## Headline

- Leader: World Trade Organization at 36%
- Runner-up: United Nations at 26%
- Outcomes: 8 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $95

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World Trade Organization | 36¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-withdraw-from-world-trade-organization-kalshi-kxwithdraw-29-wto |
| United Nations | 26¢ | −5pp | $95 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-withdraw-from-united-nations-before-ja-kalshi-kxwithdraw-29-un |
| World Bank Group | 22¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-withdraw-from-world-bank-group-before-kalshi-kxwithdraw-29-wbank |
| OECD | 18¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-withdraw-from-oecd-before-jan-20-2029-kalshi-kxwithdraw-29-oecd |
| International Monetary Fund | 14¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-withdraw-from-international-monetary-f-kalshi-kxwithdraw-29-imf |
| Inter-American Development Bank | 14¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-withdraw-from-inter-american-developme-kalshi-kxwithdraw-29-idb |
| International Atomic Energy Agency | 9¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-withdraw-from-international-atomic-ene-kalshi-kxwithdraw-29-iaea |
| Interpol | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-withdraw-from-interpol-before-jan-20-2-kalshi-kxwithdraw-29-interpol |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | World Trade Organization | United Nations | World Bank Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | — | 19 | — |
| 2026-04-14 | — | — | 21 |
| 2026-04-15 | 34 | — | — |
| 2026-04-25 | 37 | 33 | — |
| 2026-04-26 | 38 | 35 | 22 |
| 2026-04-29 | 38 | — | 23 |
| 2026-05-01 | — | 31 | — |
| 2026-05-06 | 36 | — | — |
| 2026-05-08 | — | 26 | — |

_16 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-08 · United Nations −5pp 31→26¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the likelihood that the United States withdraws from the International Atomic Energy Agency before January 20, 2029—approximately 37 in 100 odds based on current prediction market pricing. The IAEA is a UN-affiliated body responsible for nuclear non-proliferation oversight and cooperation. A withdrawal would represent a significant departure from decades of U.S. nuclear governance policy and could signal major shifts in international relations or administration priorities. The current probability suggests markets view withdrawal as possible but not probable, likely reflecting uncertainty around geopolitical tensions, nuclear diplomacy outcomes, and administrative policy preferences in the period ahead. Key drivers include evolving U.S. foreign policy positions, developments in nuclear negotiations with other nations, and broader international organization engagement decisions that may emerge before the deadline.

### Key factors

- Current U.S. nuclear diplomacy stance and whether negotiations with Iran or other nuclear powers influence IAEA engagement
- Changes in U.S. foreign policy or leadership priorities toward international institutions between now and January 2029
- Specific IAEA resolutions or actions that might provoke U.S. reconsideration of membership
- Comparative strength of isolationist versus internationalist policy frameworks within U.S. government during this period
- Whether any triggered international crises make IAEA oversight a political flashpoint

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/withdraw
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=withdraw

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.