# Will LSU win the Women's College Basketball National Championship

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 11% across 12 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wmarmad
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:41.554Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-05-02

## Headline

- Probability: 11% (liquidity-weighted across 12 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (12 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (12)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UConn | 25¢ | +7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-uconn-win-the-womens-college-basketball-natio-kalshi-kxwmarmad-27-conn |
| Texas | 5¢ | −5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-texas-win-the-womens-college-basketball-natio-kalshi-kxwmarmad-27-tex |
| South Carolina | 23¢ | +6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-south-carolina-win-the-womens-college-basketb-kalshi-kxwmarmad-27-scar |
| LSU | 4¢ | +6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-lsu-win-the-womens-college-basketball-nationa-kalshi-kxwmarmad-27-lsu |
| USC | 24¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-usc-win-the-womens-college-basketball-nationa-kalshi-kxwmarmad-27-usc |
| TCU | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tcu-win-the-womens-college-basketball-nationa-kalshi-kxwmarmad-27-tcu |
| Oklahoma | 10¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-oklahoma-win-the-womens-college-basketball-na-kalshi-kxwmarmad-27-okla |
| Louisville | 10¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-louisville-win-the-womens-college-basketball-kalshi-kxwmarmad-27-lou |
| Ole Miss | 5¢ | −30pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ole-miss-win-the-womens-college-basketball-na-kalshi-kxwmarmad-27-miss |
| Tennessee | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tennessee-win-the-womens-college-basketball-n-kalshi-kxwmarmad-27-tenn |
| Nebraska | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-nebraska-win-the-womens-college-basketball-na-kalshi-kxwmarmad-27-neb |
| Stanford | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-stanford-win-the-womens-college-basketball-na-kalshi-kxwmarmad-27-stan |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | 22 |
| 2026-05-02 | 23 |
| 2026-05-08 | 24 |

_10 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Ole Miss −30pp 35→5¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · UConn +9pp 7→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · UConn +7pp 16→23¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · South Carolina +6pp 15→21¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · LSU +6pp 4→10¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 10% probability reflects the current market estimate that LSU will win the Women's College Basketball National Championship in the 2025-26 season. The valuation likely reflects LSU's roster composition, recent tournament performance history, and strength of conference competition within the SEC. Key catalysts include the team's performance through conference play (January-February 2026) and their seeding in the NCAA Tournament, which will provide clearer evidence of championship viability. The NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament in March 2026 will ultimately resolve this question, with the championship game scheduled for early April 2026. Between now and then, LSU's win-loss record, tournament selection, and matchup strength will be the primary factors markets use to reassess these odds.

### Key factors

- LSU's current roster talent level and player development trajectory compared to traditional powerhouses like South Carolina, UConn, and Texas
- LSU's historical tournament seeding and performance record (Elite Eight appearances, Final Four accessibility)
- The depth and competitiveness of the SEC conference in 2025-26, which affects LSU's tournament path and resume strength
- Injury status of key LSU players heading into tournament play
- NCAA selection committee's tournament seeding of LSU, which directly influences their path to the championship

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wmarmad
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wmarmad

## License

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