# WNBA: 2026 Champion

> 2026 Champion: New York Liberty leads at 33%, runner-up 18% across 14 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wnba-champion
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:39.514Z
Category: sports
Status: active
Closes: 2026-10-31

## Headline

- Leader: 2026 Champion: New York Liberty at 33%
- Runner-up: 2026 Champion: Indiana Fever at 18%
- Outcomes: 14 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (14 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (14)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Champion: New York Liberty | 33¢ | −3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/wnba-2026-champion-new-york-liberty-polymarket-0xe11b15d95e771b2c62552a45d62c548a53097275649817359eccfa9d43aa7ba0 |
| 2026 Champion: Indiana Fever | 18¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/wnba-2026-champion-indiana-fever-polymarket-0xd871693edd7db6bba9d33d00cfa7c982deb154df906b3e18e72f4c45fe67f813 |
| 2026 Champion: Atlanta Dream | 17¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/wnba-2026-champion-atlanta-dream-polymarket-0x4c9590ea909dcc59d896ac0742053dbb5727dc0bdd66380304b153022f512edb |
| 2026 Champion: Las Vegas Aces | 17¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/wnba-2026-champion-las-vegas-aces-polymarket-0xb07519f7498ab5b3bac160e1f1bfbda0df38ef9b7149f8ec679b0df00cfe0138 |
| 2026 Champion: Minnesota Lynx | 11¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/wnba-2026-champion-minnesota-lynx-polymarket-0xcb3a9d3ea501b93b752a39ac7f01e6bd5e316f18bbea63ad168302b76d2d0838 |
| 2026 Champion: Dallas Wings | 6¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/wnba-2026-champion-dallas-wings-polymarket-0x31c59967c5a68e2c7d7bcc991e9bc988a4afcf9457c88333a5520a4d146623e4 |
| 2026 Champion: Golden State Valkyries | 6¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/wnba-2026-champion-golden-state-valkyries-polymarket-0xa0c78ad41f39cd8afcbb10b125efb291229db64ecf8b7dfb2ce9c9feed96bbf5 |
| 2026 Champion: Los Angeles Sparks | 5¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/wnba-2026-champion-los-angeles-sparks-polymarket-0x88283e9a1b66aafc68263662b4e4258bc79af79cf779d9e04924d4f050cd185c |
| 2026 Champion: Phoenix Mercury | 5¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/wnba-2026-champion-phoenix-mercury-polymarket-0x6c05137a35c09467d09abceb6888bc44812909dd96d28d498caec18f7e693108 |
| 2026 Champion: Seattle Storm | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/wnba-2026-champion-seattle-storm-polymarket-0x202ecda81d699b5221edf67e1985fb43a9354fd69039ac75021d2d08baf79e97 |
| 2026 Champion: Washington Mystics | 4¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/wnba-2026-champion-washington-mystics-polymarket-0x902b3067f835966e34b13c1c523a74d4700c79b21cbec8a9b54007e4b05791f7 |
| 2026 Champion: Connecticut Sun | 3¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/wnba-2026-champion-connecticut-sun-polymarket-0xa39798fb445ebf7658703a3dd571f4fc51f8740381c51d6d32f5a9a7d542133a |
| 2026 Champion: Toronto Tempo | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/wnba-2026-champion-toronto-tempo-polymarket-0x033dd3480d06974a5176c618cb4ac58638cebb484d966ef0d2b03352328fd004 |
| 2026 Champion: Chicago Sky | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/wnba-2026-champion-chicago-sky-polymarket-0x3f448a41d1ef87aea4ac151403d5a11250a55fee2b214e695783fb8d7e5adf52 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 2026 Champion: New York Liberty | 2026 Champion: Indiana Fever | 2026 Champion: Atlanta Dream |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | 37 | 29 | 13 |
| 2026-05-02 | 30 | 18 | 14 |
| 2026-05-09 | 32 | 18 | 16 |

_9 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · 2026 Champion: Golden State Valkyries −14pp 18→4¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · 2026 Champion: Los Angeles Sparks −14pp 18→4¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · 2026 Champion: New York Liberty −11pp 41→30¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · 2026 Champion: Washington Mystics −11pp 16→5¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · 2026 Champion: Seattle Storm −9pp 13→4¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The 27% probability indicates that the contract leader is assessed as having roughly a one-in-four chance of winning the 2026 WNBA championship. This price reflects current betting market expectations based on roster strength, injury status, and perceived championship contention likelihood. The market is driven by seasonal performance data, trade activity during the offseason, and team composition relative to competitors. The biggest driver of movement will be the regular season itself: as teams begin play and their actual 2026 performance becomes observable, probabilities will recalibrate based on wins-losses, injury developments, and playoff positioning. The resolution date is the 2026 WNBA Finals conclusion. Uncertainty around roster stability, key player fitness heading into the season, and how new lineups perform together will cause ongoing price adjustments through the offseason and into summer competition.

### Key factors

- Current roster composition and announced trades or free-agent signings for the 2026 season
- Injury status of core players entering the season, particularly those returning from 2025 injuries
- Regular season performance metrics (win-loss record, playoff seeding trajectory) once games begin
- Historical playoff success rate and clutch performance of the team's roster in previous postseasons
- Movement of competing teams' probabilities and relative market consensus about championship contenders

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wnba-champion
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wnba-champion

## License

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