# Will Atlanta win the 2026 Women's Pro Basketball Championship

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 11% across 9 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wnba
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:24.474Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-11-30

## Headline

- Probability: 11% (liquidity-weighted across 9 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $14K

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas | 18¢ | ±0 | $6K | kalshi | /markets/will-las-vegas-win-the-2026-womens-pro-basketball-kalshi-kxwnba-26-lv |
| Dallas | 3¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-dallas-win-the-2026-womens-pro-basketball-cha-kalshi-kxwnba-26-dal |
| Golden State | 3¢ | ±0 | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-golden-state-win-the-2026-womens-pro-basketba-kalshi-kxwnba-26-gs |
| Minnesota | 7¢ | ±0 | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-minnesota-win-the-2026-womens-pro-basketball-kalshi-kxwnba-26-min |
| New York | 29¢ | +2pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-new-york-win-the-2026-womens-pro-basketball-c-kalshi-kxwnba-26-ny |
| Phoenix | 3¢ | +1pp | $400 | kalshi | /markets/will-phoenix-win-the-2026-womens-pro-basketball-ch-kalshi-kxwnba-26-phx |
| Los Angeles | 5¢ | +1pp | $344 | kalshi | /markets/will-los-angeles-win-the-2026-womens-pro-basketbal-kalshi-kxwnba-26-la |
| Indiana | 16¢ | −3pp | $282 | kalshi | /markets/will-indiana-win-the-2026-womens-pro-basketball-ch-kalshi-kxwnba-26-ind |
| Atlanta | 12¢ | −1pp | $34 | kalshi | /markets/will-atlanta-win-the-2026-womens-pro-basketball-ch-kalshi-kxwnba-26-atl |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-20 | 11 |
| 2026-04-25 | 14 |
| 2026-05-01 | 9 |
| 2026-05-09 | 29 |

_16 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · New York −4pp 32→28¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Indiana −3pp 19→16¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market reflects the probability that the Atlanta Dream will win the WNBA championship in 2026. At 16%, the price suggests Atlanta is considered a competitive but not favored contender relative to other teams. The probability is shaped by the current roster composition, draft position, and team trajectory heading into the season. Key drivers of upward movement would include strong regular-season performance, successful draft acquisitions, or roster additions through trades. The probability could decline if key players underperform, suffer injuries, or if competing teams demonstrate superior strength. The most significant catalyst will be the WNBA regular season performance beginning in 2026, which will clarify whether Atlanta can maintain competitiveness through playoff qualification.

### Key factors

- Atlanta's current roster depth and individual player performance relative to other WNBA rosters
- Draft capital available to Atlanta and success of recent draft picks in development
- Injury status of key players throughout the 2026 regular season and playoffs
- Win-loss record and playoff seed positioning achieved by Atlanta through the regular season
- Relative strength of competing teams, particularly top contenders with historical championship experience

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wnba
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wnba

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.