# Jonquel Jones: 2+ threes

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 22% across 17 contracts — refreshed 23 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wnba3pt
Updated: 2026-05-28T20:20:07.386Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-12

## Headline

- Probability: 22% (liquidity-weighted across 17 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (17 contracts)
- 24h volume: $113
- Resolved: 2+ threes: Caitlin Clark: 2+

## Bound contracts (17)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2+ threes: Veronica Burton: 2+ | 44¢ | +39pp | $47 | kalshi | /markets/veronica-burton-2-threes-veronica-burton-2-kalshi-kxwnba3pt-26may28indgs-gsvburton22-2 |
| 3+ threes: Caitlin Clark: 3+ | 57¢ | +52pp | $22 | kalshi | /markets/caitlin-clark-3-threes-caitlin-clark-3-kalshi-kxwnba3pt-26may28indgs-indcclark22-3 |
| 3+ threes: Kelsey Mitchell: 3+ | 41¢ | +35pp | $21 | kalshi | /markets/kelsey-mitchell-3-threes-kelsey-mitchell-3-kalshi-kxwnba3pt-26may28indgs-indkmitchell0-3 |
| 3+ threes: Gabby Williams: 3+ | 32¢ | +29pp | $12 | kalshi | /markets/gabby-williams-3-threes-gabby-williams-3-kalshi-kxwnba3pt-26may28indgs-gsgwilliams1-3 |
| 3+ threes: Janelle Salaün: 3+ | 35¢ | +34pp | $8 | kalshi | /markets/janelle-salan-3-threes-janelle-salan-3-kalshi-kxwnba3pt-26may28indgs-gsjsalan13-3 |
| 2+ threes: Caitlin Clark: 2+ | 4¢ | +1pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/caitlin-clark-2-threes-caitlin-clark-2-kalshi-kxwnba3pt-26may28indgs-indcclark22-2 |
| 2+ threes: Kelsey Mitchell: 2+ | 73¢ | — | $1 | kalshi | /markets/kelsey-mitchell-2-threes-kelsey-mitchell-2-kalshi-kxwnba3pt-26may28indgs-indkmitchell0-2 |
| 2+ threes: Gabby Williams: 2+ | 60¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/gabby-williams-2-threes-gabby-williams-2-kalshi-kxwnba3pt-26may28indgs-gsgwilliams1-2 |
| 2+ threes: Janelle Salaün: 2+ | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/janelle-salan-2-threes-janelle-salan-2-kalshi-kxwnba3pt-26may28indgs-gsjsalan13-2 |
| 2+ threes: Allisha Gray: 2+ | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/allisha-gray-2-threes-allisha-gray-2-kalshi-kxwnba3pt-26may29atlpdx-atlagray15-2 |
| 3+ threes: Allisha Gray: 3+ | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/allisha-gray-3-threes-allisha-gray-3-kalshi-kxwnba3pt-26may29atlpdx-atlagray15-3 |
| 2+ threes: Rhyne Howard: 2+ | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/rhyne-howard-2-threes-rhyne-howard-2-kalshi-kxwnba3pt-26may29atlpdx-atlrhoward10-2 |
| 3+ threes: Rhyne Howard: 3+ | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/rhyne-howard-3-threes-rhyne-howard-3-kalshi-kxwnba3pt-26may29atlpdx-atlrhoward10-3 |
| 2+ threes: Bridget Carleton: 2+ | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/bridget-carleton-2-threes-bridget-carleton-2-kalshi-kxwnba3pt-26may29atlpdx-pdxbcarleton6-2 |
| 3+ threes: Bridget Carleton: 3+ | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/bridget-carleton-3-threes-bridget-carleton-3-kalshi-kxwnba3pt-26may29atlpdx-pdxbcarleton6-3 |
| 2+ threes: Sonia Citron: 2+ | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/sonia-citron-2-threes-sonia-citron-2-kalshi-kxwnba3pt-26may29lawsh-wshscitron22-2 |
| 3+ threes: Sonia Citron: 3+ | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/sonia-citron-3-threes-sonia-citron-3-kalshi-kxwnba3pt-26may29lawsh-wshscitron22-3 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | 36 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-28 · 3+ threes: Caitlin Clark: 3+ +52pp 5→57¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-28 · 2+ threes: Veronica Burton: 2+ +39pp 4→43¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-28 · 3+ threes: Kelsey Mitchell: 3+ +35pp 6→41¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-28 · 3+ threes: Janelle Salaün: 3+ +34pp 5→39¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-28 · 3+ threes: Gabby Williams: 3+ +29pp 4→33¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 10% chance that Jonquel Jones makes at least 2 three-pointers in an upcoming game. The current low probability reflects Jones's historical shooting patterns and role within her team's offensive system. Three-point volume depends on factors including team pace, offensive strategy, defensive adjustments by opponents, and Jones's playing time. The probability could shift based on recent performance trends, changes in team composition, or pregame information about defensive matchups. Resolution will occur at the conclusion of the relevant game, when the final three-point total becomes definitive.

### Key factors

- Jonquel Jones's career three-point attempt rate and make percentage compared to the 2+ threshold
- Team offensive strategy and whether the system emphasizes perimeter shooting or interior play
- Opponent's defensive approach and whether it extends coverage to Jones's shooting range
- Jones's recent game-by-game performance and any changes in playing time or role
- Kalshi contract pricing discrepancies (2+ at 23¢ vs. aggregated 10% probability) suggesting potential market inefficiency

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wnba3pt
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wnba3pt

## License

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