# Will Jewell Loyd win Sixth Player of the Year

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 20% across 5 contracts — refreshed 31 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wnba6poy
Updated: 2026-05-29T23:20:07.521Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-12-01

## Headline

- Probability: 20% (liquidity-weighted across 5 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $4

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chennedy Carter | 74¢ | +2pp | $4 | kalshi | /markets/will-chennedy-carter-win-sixth-player-of-the-year-kalshi-kxwnba6poy-26-ccarter23 |
| DeWanna Bonner | 10¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dewanna-bonner-win-sixth-player-of-the-year-d-kalshi-kxwnba6poy-26-dbonner14 |
| Flau'jae Johnson | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-flaujae-johnson-win-sixth-player-of-the-year-kalshi-kxwnba6poy-26-fjohnson4 |
| Maddy Siegrist | 4¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-maddy-siegrist-win-sixth-player-of-the-year-m-kalshi-kxwnba6poy-26-msiegrist20 |
| Sophie Cunningham | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sophie-cunningham-win-sixth-player-of-the-yea-kalshi-kxwnba6poy-26-scunningham8 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | 8 |
| 2026-05-15 | 23 |
| 2026-05-22 | 27 |
| 2026-05-29 | 73 |

_23 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-27 · Chennedy Carter +17pp 56→73¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-26 · Chennedy Carter −16pp 72→56¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-24 · Chennedy Carter +11pp 53→64¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-25 · Chennedy Carter +8pp 64→72¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-23 · Chennedy Carter +3pp 50→53¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 13% probability indicates the market estimates roughly a 1-in-8 chance that Jewell Loyd wins the WNBA Sixth Player of the Year award. The prediction reflects Loyd's status as an elite bench contributor for the Seattle Storm, though she faces competition from higher-probability candidates like Chennedy Carter (39%) and Maddy Siegrist (7%). The award ultimately depends on voting by coaches, players, and media at season's end, which rewards bench players who significantly impact winning while coming off the bench. Loyd's probability would shift upward if the Storm secure a top playoff seed and she maintains strong offensive efficiency, or downward if other benchwarmers demonstrate superior scoring volume or team success. The award is typically decided in late May or early June following the regular season's conclusion.

### Key factors

- Jewell Loyd's actual bench minutes and scoring efficiency during the 2026 WNBA regular season compared to other bench candidates
- Seattle Storm's playoff seeding and win total—voters tend to favor sixth players on successful teams
- Voting patterns from previous years showing whether elite scorers or well-rounded two-way contributors have won the award
- Relative playing time allocation: whether Loyd is used more as a bench scorer or starter, which affects eligibility and narrative
- Performance of competing candidates like Carter and Siegrist, particularly their volume and impact metrics over the full season

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wnba6poy

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