# Will Allisha Gray win All-Star Game MVP in the 2026 season

> Closed. Last odds frozen 7 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wnbaasgmvp
Updated: 2026-07-27T01:20:51.583Z
Category: sports
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-08-08

## Headline

- Probability: 23% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $400K

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caitlin Clark | 5¢ | +20pp | $192K | kalshi | /markets/will-caitlin-clark-win-all-star-game-mvp-in-the-20-kalshi-kxwnbaasgmvp-26-cclark22 |
| Jonquel Jones | 91¢ | +25pp | $74K | kalshi | /markets/will-jonquel-jones-win-all-star-game-mvp-in-the-20-kalshi-kxwnbaasgmvp-26-jjones35 |
| Kelsey Mitchell | 9¢ | −8pp | $66K | kalshi | /markets/will-kelsey-mitchell-win-all-star-game-mvp-in-the-kalshi-kxwnbaasgmvp-26-kmitchell0 |
| Olivia Miles | 3¢ | −5pp | $49K | kalshi | /markets/will-olivia-miles-win-all-star-game-mvp-in-the-202-kalshi-kxwnbaasgmvp-26-omiles5 |
| Dominique Malonga | 18¢ | +3pp | $15K | kalshi | /markets/will-dominique-malonga-win-all-star-game-mvp-in-th-kalshi-kxwnbaasgmvp-26-dmalonga14 |
| Nneka Ogwumike | 12¢ | +3pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-nneka-ogwumike-win-all-star-game-mvp-in-the-2-kalshi-kxwnbaasgmvp-26-nogwumike3 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | 14 |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-22 · Caitlin Clark +82pp 2→84¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-23 · Caitlin Clark −71pp 84→13¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-26 · Jonquel Jones +25pp 4→29¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-26 · Caitlin Clark +20pp 14→34¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-26 · Kelsey Mitchell −8pp 11→3¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This represents a 6% chance that Allisha Gray will be named MVP of the 2026 WNBA All-Star Game. The probability reflects market expectations based on player performance, All-Star selection likelihood, and historical voting patterns for All-Star Game MVPs. The current level is driven by Gray's individual performance relative to other WNBA players and her likelihood of being selected to the All-Star roster. The main catalyst will be the All-Star Game itself, scheduled for 2026, where MVP voting occurs after the game concludes. Gray's probability could shift based on her regular-season statistics, injury status, All-Star voting results, and her performance in the actual game. Relative to other candidates listed—particularly Caitlin Clark at 8¢—the market suggests Gray has moderate odds but faces significant competition from higher-ranked players.

### Key factors

- Allisha Gray's regular-season statistics and performance metrics compared to other eligible WNBA players
- Whether Gray is selected to the 2026 WNBA All-Star roster, which determines MVP eligibility
- Historical voting patterns for All-Star Game MVP, which tend to favor higher-usage players and leading scorers
- Gray's actual performance during the 2026 All-Star Game itself, including scoring, assists, and impact metrics
- Competitive landscape: current market shows 11 higher-probability candidates like Olivia Miles (11¢) and Caitlin Clark (8¢)

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wnbaasgmvp

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