# Will New York win the 2026 Women's Pro Basketball Commissioner's Cup

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 9% across 6 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wnbaccup
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:44.266Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-07-01

## Headline

- Probability: 9% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $510

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta | 10¢ | ±0 | $390 | kalshi | /markets/will-atlanta-win-the-2026-womens-pro-basketball-co-kalshi-kxwnbaccup-26-atl |
| Golden State | 6¢ | −1pp | $74 | kalshi | /markets/will-golden-state-win-the-2026-womens-pro-basketba-kalshi-kxwnbaccup-26-gs |
| Indiana | 14¢ | +2pp | $28 | kalshi | /markets/will-indiana-win-the-2026-womens-pro-basketball-co-kalshi-kxwnbaccup-26-ind |
| New York | 20¢ | +2pp | $18 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-york-win-the-2026-womens-pro-basketball-c-kalshi-kxwnbaccup-26-ny |
| Dallas | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dallas-win-the-2026-womens-pro-basketball-com-kalshi-kxwnbaccup-26-dal |
| Seattle | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-seattle-win-the-2026-womens-pro-basketball-co-kalshi-kxwnbaccup-26-sea |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 | 15 |
| 2026-05-02 | 10 |
| 2026-05-08 | 12 |

_9 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Atlanta +6pp 6→12¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Indiana +3pp 10→13¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 12% probability reflects the odds that New York will win the Women's Pro Basketball Commissioner's Cup in 2026. The relatively low probability suggests New York faces competitive disadvantages compared to other contenders. The main factors driving this level are the team's current roster strength and performance trajectory compared to other Eastern Conference teams, combined with the historical competitiveness of the Commissioner's Cup format. The probability will likely shift significantly following the trade deadline (typically in February) and as the regular season progresses, with the cup tournament itself scheduled to take place mid-season, providing a clear resolution point.

### Key factors

- New York's current win-loss record and standing relative to Eastern Conference competitors directly impacts their tournament eligibility and seeding
- Roster additions or injuries between now and the cup tournament will alter their competitive position and ability to field a full-strength squad
- Historical performance in previous Commissioner's Cup tournaments indicates how well New York typically performs in this specific format versus regular season play
- The 12% probability implies New York is roughly 8:1 underdogs, suggesting oddsmakers view at least 6-7 other teams as more likely contenders
- Tournament structure and bracket placement will determine the specific path to championship, with favorable matchups potentially improving New York's chances

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wnbaccup
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wnbaccup

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.