# Will Caitlin Clark win Commissioner's Cup MVP

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 8% across 4 contracts — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wnbaccupmvp
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:41.599Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-08-01

## Headline

- Probability: 8% (liquidity-weighted across 4 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $53

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paige Bueckers | 3¢ | — | $37 | kalshi | /markets/will-paige-bueckers-win-commissioners-cup-mvp-paig-kalshi-kxwnbaccupmvp-26-pbue |
| Caitlin Clark | 21¢ | +1pp | $16 | kalshi | /markets/will-caitlin-clark-win-commissioners-cup-mvp-caitl-kalshi-kxwnbaccupmvp-26-ccla |
| A'ja Wilson | 3¢ | −10pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-aja-wilson-win-commissioners-cup-mvp-aja-wils-kalshi-kxwnbaccupmvp-26-awil |
| Azzi Fudd | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-azzi-fudd-win-commissioners-cup-mvp-azzi-fudd-kalshi-kxwnbaccupmvp-26-afud |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 13 |
| 2026-05-02 | 3 |
| 2026-05-07 | 21 |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Caitlin Clark +16pp 4→20¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates an 11% chance that Caitlin Clark wins the WNBA Commissioner's Cup MVP award during the 2026 season. The probability reflects her status as a talented but relatively new player competing against established stars in the league. Clark's actual performance during the regular season and the Commissioner's Cup tournament itself will be the primary drivers—strong statistical output and team success would increase her odds, while injuries or underperformance relative to other candidates would decrease them. The main catalyst resolving this uncertainty is the completion of the Commissioner's Cup portion of the season, which determines both individual eligibility and voting outcomes. Current pricing suggests the market views other players or candidates as more likely recipients of the award based on factors like experience, historical performance, and team competitiveness.

### Key factors

- Clark's statistical performance metrics (scoring, assists, shooting efficiency) during the 2026 WNBA regular season and Commissioner's Cup tournament relative to other MVP candidates
- Her team's success in the Commissioner's Cup competition—award voters typically favor players on winning teams
- Whether injuries affect her availability or performance during the evaluation period
- Voter preferences and historical voting patterns for MVP awards, which may favor established veterans over younger players
- Strength of competing candidates and their respective performance levels in 2026

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wnbaccupmvp
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wnbaccupmvp

## License

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