# Will Lynne Roberts win Coach of the Year

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 7% across 11 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wnbacoy
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:38.307Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-12-01

## Headline

- Probability: 7% (liquidity-weighted across 11 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (11 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (11)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natalie Nakase | 3¢ | — | $301 | kalshi | /markets/will-natalie-nakase-win-coach-of-the-year-natalie-kalshi-kxwnbacoy-26-nnak |
| Sandy Brondello | 10¢ | +2pp | $282 | kalshi | /markets/will-sandy-brondello-win-coach-of-the-year-sandy-b-kalshi-kxwnbacoy-26-sbro |
| Karl Smesko | 11¢ | +1pp | $214 | kalshi | /markets/will-karl-smesko-win-coach-of-the-year-karl-smesko-kalshi-kxwnbacoy-26-ksme |
| Cheryl Reeve | 4¢ | −2pp | $188 | kalshi | /markets/will-cheryl-reeve-win-coach-of-the-year-cheryl-ree-kalshi-kxwnbacoy-26-cree |
| Jose Fernandez | 10¢ | −1pp | $35 | kalshi | /markets/will-jose-fernandez-win-coach-of-the-year-jose-fer-kalshi-kxwnbacoy-26-jfer |
| Lynne Roberts | 6¢ | +2pp | $29 | kalshi | /markets/will-lynne-roberts-win-coach-of-the-year-lynne-rob-kalshi-kxwnbacoy-26-lrob |
| Nate Tibbets | 4¢ | −1pp | $19 | kalshi | /markets/will-nate-tibbets-win-coach-of-the-year-nate-tibbe-kalshi-kxwnbacoy-26-ntib |
| Becky Hammon | 7¢ | −1pp | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-becky-hammon-win-coach-of-the-year-becky-hamm-kalshi-kxwnbacoy-26-bham |
| Sonia Raman | 3¢ | — | $6 | kalshi | /markets/will-sonia-raman-win-coach-of-the-year-sonia-raman-kalshi-kxwnbacoy-26-sram |
| Chris DeMarco | 10¢ | ±0 | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-chris-demarco-win-coach-of-the-year-chris-dem-kalshi-kxwnbacoy-26-cdem |
| Stephanie White | 11¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-stephanie-white-win-coach-of-the-year-stephan-kalshi-kxwnbacoy-26-swhi |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | 8 |
| 2026-04-25 | 10 |
| 2026-05-02 | 8 |
| 2026-05-07 | 7 |

_12 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Stephanie White −5pp 10→5¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Chris DeMarco −4pp 16→12¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Stephanie White +4pp 5→9¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Stephanie White −3pp 12→9¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

At 9%, this probability reflects relatively low odds that Lynce Roberts will be named Coach of the Year for the 2025-26 season. The market is heavily concentrated on Joe Mazzulla (94¢), suggesting the favorite has largely consolidated expectations. Roberts' modest probability reflects competition from other strong candidates and the difficulty of winning such awards even when a coach performs well. The primary factors affecting her odds would be her team's win-loss record, playoff performance, and how her achievements compare directly to other finalists. The award will be determined after the NBA season concludes and voting takes place, typically in June, when the full year of coaching performance is evaluated.

### Key factors

- Team record and playoff seeding relative to preseason expectations and roster changes
- Head-to-head voting competition from higher-probability candidates, particularly Joe Mazzulla and JB Bickerstaff
- Whether Roberts' team makes and advances through the playoffs, as playoff success significantly influences Coach of the Year voting
- Award voting eligibility and specific voting body composition, which may limit the pool of considered candidates
- Media narrative and team improvement trajectory throughout the season compared to other finalist coaches

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wnbacoy
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wnbacoy

## License

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