# Will A'ja Wilson win Defensive Player of the Year

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 10% across 8 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wnbadpoy
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:41.313Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-12-01

## Headline

- Probability: 10% (liquidity-weighted across 8 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $192

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Napheesa Collier | 8¢ | — | $117 | kalshi | /markets/will-napheesa-collier-win-defensive-player-of-the-kalshi-kxwnbadpoy-26-ncollier24 |
| Gabby Williams | 4¢ | −1pp | $43 | kalshi | /markets/will-gabby-williams-win-defensive-player-of-the-ye-kalshi-kxwnbadpoy-26-gwilliams1 |
| A'ja Wilson | 32¢ | −1pp | $21 | kalshi | /markets/will-aja-wilson-win-defensive-player-of-the-year-a-kalshi-kxwnbadpoy-26-awilson22 |
| Angel Reese | 7¢ | +1pp | $7 | kalshi | /markets/will-angel-reese-win-defensive-player-of-the-year-kalshi-kxwnbadpoy-26-areese5 |
| Alyssa Thomas | 4¢ | −1pp | $3 | kalshi | /markets/will-alyssa-thomas-win-defensive-player-of-the-yea-kalshi-kxwnbadpoy-26-athomas25 |
| Aliyah Boston | 12¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-aliyah-boston-win-defensive-player-of-the-yea-kalshi-kxwnbadpoy-26-aboston7 |
| Alanna Smith | 6¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-alanna-smith-win-defensive-player-of-the-year-kalshi-kxwnbadpoy-26-asmith8 |
| Cameron Brink | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cameron-brink-win-defensive-player-of-the-yea-kalshi-kxwnbadpoy-26-cbrink22 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-23 | 22 |
| 2026-04-25 | 14 |
| 2026-05-01 | 11 |
| 2026-05-07 | 5 |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Cameron Brink −6pp 10→4¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 10% probability reflects market expectations that A'ja Wilson will win the 2026 NFL Defensive Player of the Year award. Wilson currently faces significant competition from edge rushers like Will Anderson Jr. and Maxx Crosby, who command higher probabilities. The projection depends on Wilson's defensive statistics through the season—particularly sack totals, tackles for loss, and impact plays—relative to other strong defensive candidates. The award typically goes to players with standout individual performances and team visibility. The probability will clarify substantially as the regular season progresses and clearer performance patterns emerge, with final determination occurring at season's end when voting takes place. Current low trading volume and minimal movement in her contract suggest limited market activity around this outcome.

### Key factors

- A'ja Wilson plays in the NBA, not NFL; DPOY voters are considering NFL defensive ends and linebackers, creating a categorical mismatch
- Market assigns higher probabilities to edge rushers (Anderson Jr. at 4¢, Crosby at 6¢) who historically dominate this award
- The probability would increase if Wilson posted elite defensive statistics (steals, blocks, defensive rating) that outpaced competitors
- DPOY voting occurs post-season, making mid-season performance data the primary resolution driver
- Extremely low trading volume ($0-$166 across contracts) suggests this market has minimal participation and may not reflect deep analytical consensus

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wnbadpoy

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