# Will at least 10% of total games be played in the 2026 Pro Women's Basketball regular season

> At least 75% of total games leads at 95%, runner-up 94% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wnbagamesplayed
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:38.448Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-15

## Headline

- Leader: At least 75% of total games at 95%
- Runner-up: At least 90% of total games at 94%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 75% of total games | 95¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-at-least-75-of-total-games-be-played-in-the-2-kalshi-kxwnbagamesplayed-26-75 |
| At least 90% of total games | 94¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-at-least-90-of-total-games-be-played-in-the-2-kalshi-kxwnbagamesplayed-26-90 |
| At least 50% of total games | 94¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-at-least-50-of-total-games-be-played-in-the-2-kalshi-kxwnbagamesplayed-26-50 |
| At least 100% of total games | 89¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-at-least-100-of-total-games-be-played-in-the-kalshi-kxwnbagamesplayed-26-100 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | At least 75% of total games | At least 90% of total games | At least 50% of total games |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | 93 | 93 | — |
| 2026-04-12 | — | — | 93 |
| 2026-04-22 | 95 | — | — |
| 2026-04-27 | — | 95 | — |
| 2026-04-29 | — | — | 94 |
| 2026-05-01 | — | — | 95 |
| 2026-05-02 | — | 94 | — |

_15 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This contract predicts whether at least 10% of scheduled games in the 2026 WNBA regular season will be played. At 96% probability, the market assigns very high confidence this threshold will be met. The high probability reflects that game cancellations severe enough to drop below 10% completion would require extraordinary circumstances—such as league-wide labor stoppages, extended facility unavailability, or catastrophic logistical failures. Historical WNBA seasons have maintained near-complete game schedules despite occasional weather delays or localized disruptions. The main downside scenario involves an unresolved labor dispute or force majeure event before the season concludes in September 2026. Resolution depends on whether the regular season runs substantially as scheduled without major interruptions causing 90% or more of games to be cancelled.

### Key factors

- WNBA regular season structure typically includes 40 games per team over 5 months with established venue access and scheduling protocols
- Labor negotiations and collective bargaining agreement status as of May 2026 determines operational continuity throughout the season
- Cumulative game cancellations to date in 2026 WNBA season and any emerging patterns of postponements or disruptions
- Historical precedent shows fewer than 10% of WNBA games cancelled in most seasons, with major stoppages being rare events
- Upcoming season calendar milestones and any announced scheduling conflicts or venue complications through September 2026

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wnbagamesplayed
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wnbagamesplayed

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.