# Will Rickea Jackson win Most Improved Player

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 12% across 12 contracts — refreshed 51 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wnbamimp
Updated: 2026-09-21T11:20:59.804Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-12-01

## Headline

- Probability: 12% (liquidity-weighted across 12 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (12 contracts)
- 24h volume: $153

## Bound contracts (12)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jessica Shepard | 74¢ | +2pp | $153 | kalshi | /markets/will-jessica-shepard-win-most-improved-player-in-t-kalshi-kxwnbamimp-26-jshepard32 |
| Gabby Williams | 8¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-gabby-williams-win-most-improved-player-gabby-kalshi-kxwnbamimp-26-gwilliams1 |
| Rickea Jackson | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-rickea-jackson-win-most-improved-player-ricke-kalshi-kxwnbamimp-26-rjackson5 |
| Kamilla Cardoso | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kamilla-cardoso-win-most-improved-player-kami-kalshi-kxwnbamimp-26-kcardoso10 |
| Maddy Siegrist | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-maddy-siegrist-win-most-improved-player-maddy-kalshi-kxwnbamimp-26-msiegrist20 |
| Aliyah Boston | 5¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-aliyah-boston-win-most-improved-player-aliyah-kalshi-kxwnbamimp-26-aboston7 |
| Natasha Mack | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-natasha-mack-win-most-improved-player-natasha-kalshi-kxwnbamimp-26-nmack4 |
| Rae Burrell | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-rae-burrell-win-most-improved-player-rae-burr-kalshi-kxwnbamimp-26-rburrell12 |
| Kiki Iriafen | 5¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kiki-iriafen-win-most-improved-player-kiki-ir-kalshi-kxwnbamimp-26-kiriafen44 |
| Tie/Co-Winners | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tieco-winners-win-most-improved-player-tieco-kalshi-kxwnbamimp-26-tie |
| Marina Mabrey | 13¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-marina-mabrey-win-most-improved-player-in-the-kalshi-kxwnbamimp-26-mmabrey3 |
| Shakira Austin | 11¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-shakira-austin-win-most-improved-player-in-th-kalshi-kxwnbamimp-26-saustin0 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | 31 |
| 2026-09-07 | 70 |
| 2026-09-12 | 40 |
| 2026-09-19 | 44 |

_23 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-17 · Jessica Shepard −17pp 78→61¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · Shakira Austin +13pp 3→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · Jessica Shepard +11pp 61→72¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 12% probability reflects markets assessing Rickea Jackson's likelihood of winning the WNBA's Most Improved Player award for the 2026 season. The relatively low odds suggest Jackson faces significant competition, particularly from Jessica Shepard (currently priced at 74¢, indicating approximately 74% implied probability across the field). MIP voting typically rewards players who demonstrate substantial statistical improvement from their previous season—whether through increased scoring, efficiency, playing time, or other measurable contributions. Jackson's odds would rise if she posts career-high statistical gains or her team makes unexpected playoff progress; they would fall if other candidates show more dramatic year-over-year improvement. The award will be determined following the completion of the 2026 WNBA regular season and playoff run, with voting occurring in late September or early October 2026. Market pricing suggests strong confidence in alternative candidates, but Jackson remains within the plausible range of winners given the historical variability of MIP voting.

### Key factors

- Jackson's statistical improvement trajectory relative to 2025 baseline—scoring, shooting efficiency, assists, or other countable metrics would need to exceed gains posted by competing candidates
- Current season playing time allocation and usage rate compared to previous year, as MIP typically rewards increased opportunity and performance
- Head-to-head statistical and narrative comparison versus Jessica Shepard, who represents the consensus frontrunner based on 74¢ market pricing
- Whether Jackson's team makes unexpected playoff advancement, as team success often influences voter perception of individual improvement
- Voting patterns from previous WNBA seasons and whether Jackson receives meaningful consideration from official voting panel, which occurred in late September of prior years

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wnbamimp
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wnbamimp

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