# Will Caitlin Clark win MVP

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 10% across 10 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wnbamvp
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:38.537Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-12-01

## Headline

- Probability: 10% (liquidity-weighted across 10 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caitlin Clark | 25¢ | −1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-caitlin-clark-win-mvp-caitlin-clark-kalshi-kxwnbamvp-26-ccla |
| Breanna Stewart | 8¢ | ±0 | $808 | kalshi | /markets/will-breanna-stewart-win-mvp-breanna-stewart-kalshi-kxwnbamvp-26-bste |
| Paige Bueckers | 8¢ | +1pp | $517 | kalshi | /markets/will-paige-bueckers-win-mvp-paige-bueckers-kalshi-kxwnbamvp-26-pbue |
| Alyssa Thomas | 6¢ | +2pp | $219 | kalshi | /markets/will-alyssa-thomas-win-mvp-alyssa-thomas-kalshi-kxwnbamvp-26-atho |
| Gabby Williams | 3¢ | — | $196 | kalshi | /markets/will-gabby-williams-win-mvp-gabby-williams-kalshi-kxwnbamvp-26-gwil |
| Napheesa Collier | 6¢ | −2pp | $173 | kalshi | /markets/will-napheesa-collier-win-mvp-napheesa-collier-kalshi-kxwnbamvp-26-ncol |
| A'ja Wilson | 33¢ | +8pp | $103 | kalshi | /markets/will-aja-wilson-win-mvp-aja-wilson-kalshi-kxwnbamvp-26-awil |
| Kelsey Plum | 3¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kelsey-plum-win-mvp-kelsey-plum-kalshi-kxwnbamvp-26-kplu |
| Sabrina Ionescu | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sabrina-ionescu-win-mvp-sabrina-ionescu-kalshi-kxwnbamvp-26-sion |
| Tie/Co-Winners | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tieco-winners-win-mvp-tieco-winners-kalshi-kxwnbamvp-26-tie |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-23 | 3 |
| 2026-04-25 | 13 |
| 2026-05-02 | 18 |
| 2026-05-08 | 5 |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · A'ja Wilson +8pp 25→33¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Paige Bueckers +4pp 4→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Alyssa Thomas −4pp 6→2¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 19% probability reflects market expectations that Caitlin Clark will win the NBA Finals MVP award this season. Clark's chances depend heavily on her individual performance metrics and her team's playoff success, as Finals MVP typically goes to a star player on the championship team. The primary driver of this probability is the Philadelphia 76ers' current playoff position and whether they reach the Finals, since the contract data suggests strong market interest in Eastern Conference contenders. The resolution will occur following the NBA Finals, which typically concludes in mid-June, when the award is officially announced. Movement in this probability will primarily track playoff results and individual statistical performances as teams progress toward the championship series.

### Key factors

- Philadelphia's playoff seeding and remaining schedule determines whether Clark's team reaches the Finals
- Clark's scoring, assist, and efficiency statistics relative to other star players on Finals-bound teams
- Market pricing on competing Finals MVP candidates (Wembanyama at 18¢ shows relative confidence in other players)
- Whether Clark maintains starter role and significant minutes throughout playoff progression
- Official Finals MVP voting criteria and historical patterns of how voters weight individual vs. team success

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wnbamvp
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wnbamvp

## License

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