# Women's Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers

> Las Vegas leads at 93%, runner-up 93% across 15 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wnbaplayoff
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:39.016Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-11-01

## Headline

- Leader: Las Vegas at 93%
- Runner-up: New York at 93%
- Outcomes: 15 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (15 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (15)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas | 93¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/womens-pro-basketball-playoff-qualifiers-las-vegas-kalshi-kxwnbaplayoff-26-lv |
| New York | 93¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/womens-pro-basketball-playoff-qualifiers-new-york-kalshi-kxwnbaplayoff-26-ny |
| Indiana | 90¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/womens-pro-basketball-playoff-qualifiers-indiana-kalshi-kxwnbaplayoff-26-ind |
| Atlanta | 89¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/womens-pro-basketball-playoff-qualifiers-atlanta-kalshi-kxwnbaplayoff-26-atl |
| Los Angeles | 69¢ | ±0 | $20 | kalshi | /markets/womens-pro-basketball-playoff-qualifiers-los-angel-kalshi-kxwnbaplayoff-26-la |
| Minnesota | 68¢ | −8pp | $15 | kalshi | /markets/womens-pro-basketball-playoff-qualifiers-minnesota-kalshi-kxwnbaplayoff-26-min |
| Phoenix | 64¢ | ±0 | $3 | kalshi | /markets/womens-pro-basketball-playoff-qualifiers-phoenix-kalshi-kxwnbaplayoff-26-phx |
| Dallas | 55¢ | ±0 | $27 | kalshi | /markets/womens-pro-basketball-playoff-qualifiers-dallas-kalshi-kxwnbaplayoff-26-dal |
| Golden State | 51¢ | −1pp | $9 | kalshi | /markets/womens-pro-basketball-playoff-qualifiers-golden-st-kalshi-kxwnbaplayoff-26-gs |
| Washington | 32¢ | +2pp | $20 | kalshi | /markets/womens-pro-basketball-playoff-qualifiers-washingto-kalshi-kxwnbaplayoff-26-wsh |
| Chicago | 31¢ | ±0 | $11 | kalshi | /markets/womens-pro-basketball-playoff-qualifiers-chicago-kalshi-kxwnbaplayoff-26-chi |
| Toronto | 15¢ | +1pp | $569 | kalshi | /markets/womens-pro-basketball-playoff-qualifiers-toronto-kalshi-kxwnbaplayoff-26-tor |
| Seattle | 10¢ | ±0 | $2 | kalshi | /markets/womens-pro-basketball-playoff-qualifiers-seattle-kalshi-kxwnbaplayoff-26-sea |
| Connecticut | 4¢ | +1pp | $364 | kalshi | /markets/womens-pro-basketball-playoff-qualifiers-connectic-kalshi-kxwnbaplayoff-26-conn |
| Portland | 4¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/womens-pro-basketball-playoff-qualifiers-portland-kalshi-kxwnbaplayoff-26-pdx |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Las Vegas | New York | Indiana |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 | 90 | 48 | 90 |
| 2026-04-24 | 91 | — | 91 |
| 2026-04-28 | — | 96 | — |
| 2026-05-02 | 92 | 97 | 90 |
| 2026-05-07 | 93 | — | 91 |
| 2026-05-08 | 93 | — | — |

_12 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-08 · Minnesota −8pp 76→68¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Chicago +4pp 26→30¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Los Angeles −3pp 73→70¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 97% probability reflects strong market confidence that women's professional basketball playoffs will proceed as scheduled in 2026. The high likelihood stems from stable league operations and no indication of labor disputes, scheduling conflicts, or other disruptions that would prevent qualification rounds from occurring. Market pricing shows concentrated bets on specific series outcomes—particularly San Antonio and Oklahoma City advancing in round two and Toronto winning a close first-round series—suggesting traders believe these matchups and results are probable. The probability would shift downward if unexpected cancellations, lockouts, or operational issues emerge. Resolution depends on whether the actual playoff bracket and early-round results align with current market expectations through June 2026.

### Key factors

- San Antonio and Oklahoma City series prices (34-36¢ for 4-0 wins) indicate these teams are heavily favored to advance, implying high confidence in the overall playoff format proceeding
- Toronto-Cleveland first-round contract at 27¢ for a 4-3 outcome shows expectation of competitive early-round play, supporting the baseline assumption of normal playoff operations
- Combined volume across top five contracts ($47,936 in 24-hour volume) reflects meaningful participation but concentration in a few specific series rather than broad market depth
- The 4-point gap between leader (97%) and runner-up (93%) is modest, indicating some underlying disagreement about playoff certainty or specific outcomes
- No visible contracts pricing severe disruptions (lockouts, cancellations, or league suspensions), suggesting traders assign negligible probability to worst-case scenarios

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wnbaplayoff
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wnbaplayoff

## License

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