# Will Olivia Miles win Rookie of the Year

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 13% across 11 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wnbaroy
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:38.085Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-12-01

## Headline

- Probability: 13% (liquidity-weighted across 11 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (11 contracts)
- 24h volume: $4K

## Bound contracts (11)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Azzi Fudd | 20¢ | ±0 | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-azzi-fudd-win-rookie-of-the-year-azzi-fudd-kalshi-kxwnbaroy-26-afudd35 |
| Olivia Miles | 32¢ | +2pp | $925 | kalshi | /markets/will-olivia-miles-win-rookie-of-the-year-olivia-mi-kalshi-kxwnbaroy-26-omiles5 |
| Flau'jae Johnson | 17¢ | ±0 | $533 | kalshi | /markets/will-flaujae-johnson-win-rookie-of-the-year-flauja-kalshi-kxwnbaroy-26-fjohnson4 |
| Georgia Amoore | 6¢ | ±0 | $300 | kalshi | /markets/will-georgia-amoore-win-rookie-of-the-year-georgia-kalshi-kxwnbaroy-26-gamoore8 |
| Lauren Betts | 25¢ | ±0 | $254 | kalshi | /markets/will-lauren-betts-win-rookie-of-the-year-lauren-be-kalshi-kxwnbaroy-26-lbetts51 |
| Raven Johnson | 7¢ | −89pp | $34 | kalshi | /markets/will-raven-johnson-win-rookie-of-the-year-raven-jo-kalshi-kxwnbaroy-26-rjohnson3 |
| Awa Fam | 5¢ | −28pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-awa-fam-win-rookie-of-the-year-awa-fam-kalshi-kxwnbaroy-26-afam11 |
| Tie/Co-Winners | 5¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tieco-winners-win-rookie-of-the-year-tieco-wi-kalshi-kxwnbaroy-26-tie |
| Ta'Niya Latson | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-taniya-latson-win-rookie-of-the-year-taniya-l-kalshi-kxwnbaroy-26-tlatson |
| Gianna Kneepkens | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-gianna-kneepkens-win-rookie-of-the-year-giann-kalshi-kxwnbaroy-26-gkneepkens5 |
| Cotie McMahon | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cotie-mcmahon-win-rookie-of-the-year-cotie-mc-kalshi-kxwnbaroy-26-cmcmahon23 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-23 | 23 |
| 2026-04-25 | 15 |
| 2026-05-02 | 21 |
| 2026-05-08 | 27 |

_14 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Raven Johnson −89pp 96→7¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Awa Fam +32pp 1→33¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Awa Fam −28pp 33→5¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Azzi Fudd −16pp 35→19¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Lauren Betts +10pp 13→23¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 18% probability reflects the likelihood that Olivia Miles wins the Rookie of the Year award. The current estimate appears driven by competition from other strong offensive and defensive rookie candidates, with Carson Beck priced at 4¢ and several defensive prospects including Rueben Bain Jr. at 17¢ showing material support. Miles' probability could increase if she demonstrates exceptional performance metrics relative to peers throughout the 2026 season, or decrease if other rookies establish clearer statistical leads. The market will resolve once the Rookie of the Year award is officially announced, typically occurring after the regular season concludes in early 2027. Trading volume across these contracts suggests moderate interest but no consensus frontrunner, with probabilities distributed across multiple candidates rather than concentrated on a single player.

### Key factors

- Offensive and defensive rookie candidates are fragmented across multiple contracts, with Carson Beck at 4¢ and Rueben Bain Jr. at 17¢ representing the highest individual probabilities
- Rookie of the Year awards typically depend on cumulative season statistics and voting panels, which will not be finalized until after the 2026 NFL regular season ends
- Miles' 18% probability places her outside the top individual contract prices shown, suggesting market participants view other rookies as stronger candidates based on current performance
- Trading volume is relatively light across these markets ($2,357 in 24-hour volume across the top 5 contracts), indicating limited certainty or engagement from traders
- The award voting typically occurs in December-January, providing approximately 7-8 months for player performance and injury status to shift competitive positioning

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wnbaroy
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wnbaroy

## License

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