# Women's Pro Basketball Semifinals Qualifiers

> Minnesota leads at 84%, runner-up 48% across 12 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 6 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wnbasemifinal
Updated: 2026-07-13T04:20:49.593Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-11-01

## Headline

- Leader: Minnesota at 84%
- Runner-up: Las Vegas at 48%
- Outcomes: 12 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (12 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (12)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 84¢ | +29pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/womens-pro-basketball-semifinals-qualifiers-minnes-kalshi-kxwnbasemifinal-26-min |
| Las Vegas | 48¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/womens-pro-basketball-semifinals-qualifiers-las-ve-kalshi-kxwnbasemifinal-26-lv |
| Connecticut | 46¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/womens-pro-basketball-semifinals-qualifiers-connec-kalshi-kxwnbasemifinal-26-conn |
| Washington | 43¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/womens-pro-basketball-semifinals-qualifiers-washin-kalshi-kxwnbasemifinal-26-wsh |
| Phoenix | 43¢ | +14pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/womens-pro-basketball-semifinals-qualifiers-phoeni-kalshi-kxwnbasemifinal-26-phx |
| New York | 33¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/womens-pro-basketball-semifinals-qualifiers-new-yo-kalshi-kxwnbasemifinal-26-ny |
| Golden State | 32¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/womens-pro-basketball-semifinals-qualifiers-golden-kalshi-kxwnbasemifinal-26-gs |
| Los Angeles | 29¢ | −5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/womens-pro-basketball-semifinals-qualifiers-los-an-kalshi-kxwnbasemifinal-26-la |
| Seattle | 26¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/womens-pro-basketball-semifinals-qualifiers-seattl-kalshi-kxwnbasemifinal-26-sea |
| Atlanta | 24¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/womens-pro-basketball-semifinals-qualifiers-atlant-kalshi-kxwnbasemifinal-26-atl |
| Indiana | 22¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/womens-pro-basketball-semifinals-qualifiers-indian-kalshi-kxwnbasemifinal-26-ind |
| Dallas | 22¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/womens-pro-basketball-semifinals-qualifiers-dallas-kalshi-kxwnbasemifinal-26-dal |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Minnesota | Las Vegas | Washington |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | 47 | 39 | — |
| 2026-06-27 | 49 | — | 22 |
| 2026-06-28 | 49 | — | 22 |
| 2026-06-29 | 50 | 55 | — |
| 2026-07-03 | 84 | — | — |
| 2026-07-07 | — | 58 | — |
| 2026-07-09 | — | 58 | — |

_21 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-07 · New York +6pp 36→42¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-07 · Indiana +5pp 15→20¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-07 · Dallas +5pp 9→14¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-07 · Atlanta −4pp 28→24¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-08 · Golden State +3pp 23→26¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that one of five women's professional basketball teams will advance to the semifinals. The 59% contract price for the leading team indicates moderately confident odds, with Seattle, Phoenix, and Connecticut showing the most trading activity. The market has priced in uncertainties around regular-season performance, playoff matchups, and injury status heading into the postseason. The primary catalyst for movement will be playoff games themselves—as teams progress or are eliminated, contract prices will sharply realign. Tournament results over the next 2-4 weeks will resolve most uncertainty, with seeding, head-to-head matchups, and late-season roster decisions all influencing which teams reach the semifinals. Current spreads suggest the favorite has a meaningful but not overwhelming advantage.

### Key factors

- The leading contract trades at 59 cents versus 24-53 cents for competitors, indicating concentration of probability but not consensus dominance
- Seattle shows highest trading volume ($1,292 in 24 hours) despite lowest price (24 cents), suggesting either contrarian interest or volatility around that outcome
- Phoenix and Connecticut both trade near 43-46 cents with minimal volume, indicating settled but uncertain positioning
- Kalshi's 10 contracts span five named teams, meaning the market has fragmented confidence across multiple potential qualifiers rather than pricing one team as dominant
- Washington and Las Vegas trade at minimal volumes ($20 and $10 respectively), suggesting lowest perceived probability of semifinal qualification

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wnbasemifinal
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wnbasemifinal

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.