# Los Angeles wins by over 10.5 points

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 24% across 11 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wnbaspread
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:38.482Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-24

## Headline

- Probability: 24% (liquidity-weighted across 11 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (11 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K
- Resolved: no

## Bound contracts (11)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana wins by over 5.5 points | 49¢ | +39pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/indiana-wins-by-over-55-points-indiana-wins-by-ove-kalshi-kxwnbaspread-26may09dalind-ind6 |
| Chicago wins by over 3.5 points | 57¢ | — | $251 | kalshi | /markets/chicago-wins-by-over-35-points-chicago-wins-by-ove-kalshi-kxwnbaspread-26may09chipdx-chi4 |
| Las Vegas wins by over 6.5 points | 53¢ | +33pp | $89 | kalshi | /markets/las-vegas-wins-by-over-65-points-las-vegas-wins-by-kalshi-kxwnbaspread-26may09phxlv-lv7 |
| Dallas wins by over 3.5 points | 5¢ | +1pp | $51 | kalshi | /markets/dallas-wins-by-over-35-points-dallas-wins-by-over-kalshi-kxwnbaspread-26may09dalind-dal4 |
| Atlanta wins by over 2.5 points | 53¢ | +18pp | $48 | kalshi | /markets/atlanta-wins-by-over-25-points-atlanta-wins-by-ove-kalshi-kxwnbaspread-26may09atlmin-atl3 |
| Phoenix wins by over 3.5 points | 6¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/phoenix-wins-by-over-35-points-phoenix-wins-by-ove-kalshi-kxwnbaspread-26may09phxlv-phx4 |
| Chicago wins by over 8.5 points | 9¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/chicago-wins-by-over-85-points-chicago-wins-by-ove-kalshi-kxwnbaspread-26may09chipdx-chi9 |
| Atlanta wins by over 7.5 points | 7¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/atlanta-wins-by-over-75-points-atlanta-wins-by-ove-kalshi-kxwnbaspread-26may09atlmin-atl8 |
| Minnesota wins by over 3.5 points | 5¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/minnesota-wins-by-over-35-points-minnesota-wins-by-kalshi-kxwnbaspread-26may09atlmin-min4 |
| Las Vegas wins by over 11.5 points | 8¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/las-vegas-wins-by-over-115-points-las-vegas-wins-b-kalshi-kxwnbaspread-26may09phxlv-lv12 |
| Indiana wins by over 10.5 points | 7¢ | +14pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/indiana-wins-by-over-105-points-indiana-wins-by-ov-kalshi-kxwnbaspread-26may09dalind-ind11 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 2 |
| 2026-05-07 | 10 |
| 2026-05-08 | 20 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-08 · Indiana wins by over 5.5 points +39pp 12→51¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Las Vegas wins by over 6.5 points +33pp 20→53¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Las Vegas wins by over 6.5 points +18pp 2→20¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Atlanta wins by over 2.5 points +18pp 34→52¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Indiana wins by over 10.5 points +14pp 5→19¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract asks whether Los Angeles will win a game by more than 10.5 points. At 18% probability, the market currently assesses this outcome as unlikely but possible. The low probability reflects that double-digit victories are relatively rare in competitive matchups. The main drivers of this probability are Los Angeles's current roster strength and recent performance metrics compared to their opponent, along with home/away status and any recent injuries. The resolution will depend entirely on the final score differential when the game concludes. Related contracts suggest uncertainty around whether Los Angeles will win at all, with some indicating closer point totals are more probable than blowouts.

### Key factors

- Los Angeles's average point differential in recent games compared to historical data for similar matchups
- Opponent's defensive ranking and offensive efficiency in recent contests
- Home court advantage status and any applicable travel schedule factors
- Current injury reports for key players on both rosters
- Whether the line movement on this contract has been trending up or down over the past 24-48 hours, indicating shifting expectations

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wnbaspread
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wnbaspread

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.