# Washington vs Atlanta

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 33% across 12 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wnbatotal
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:39.985Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-24

## Headline

- Probability: 33% (liquidity-weighted across 12 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (12 contracts)
- 24h volume: $921
- Resolved: no

## Bound contracts (12)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 165.5 points scored | 53¢ | +11pp | $614 | kalshi | /markets/phoenix-vs-las-vegas-over-1655-points-scored-kalshi-kxwnbatotal-26may09phxlv-166 |
| Over 174.5 points scored | 58¢ | +12pp | $307 | kalshi | /markets/dallas-vs-indiana-over-1745-points-scored-kalshi-kxwnbatotal-26may09dalind-175 |
| Over 179.5 points scored | 21¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/dallas-vs-indiana-over-1795-points-scored-kalshi-kxwnbatotal-26may09dalind-180 |
| Over 153.5 points scored | 27¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/chicago-vs-portland-over-1535-points-scored-kalshi-kxwnbatotal-26may09chipdx-154 |
| Over 158.5 points scored | 17¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/chicago-vs-portland-over-1585-points-scored-kalshi-kxwnbatotal-26may09chipdx-159 |
| Over 163.5 points scored | 6¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/chicago-vs-portland-over-1635-points-scored-kalshi-kxwnbatotal-26may09chipdx-164 |
| Over 151.5 points scored | 25¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/atlanta-vs-minnesota-over-1515-points-scored-kalshi-kxwnbatotal-26may09atlmin-152 |
| Over 156.5 points scored | 53¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/atlanta-vs-minnesota-over-1565-points-scored-kalshi-kxwnbatotal-26may09atlmin-157 |
| Over 161.5 points scored | 40¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/atlanta-vs-minnesota-over-1615-points-scored-kalshi-kxwnbatotal-26may09atlmin-162 |
| Over 160.5 points scored | 28¢ | +8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/phoenix-vs-las-vegas-over-1605-points-scored-kalshi-kxwnbatotal-26may09phxlv-161 |
| Over 170.5 points scored | 6¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/phoenix-vs-las-vegas-over-1705-points-scored-kalshi-kxwnbatotal-26may09phxlv-171 |
| Over 169.5 points scored | 59¢ | +9pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/dallas-vs-indiana-over-1695-points-scored-kalshi-kxwnbatotal-26may09dalind-170 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 2 |
| 2026-05-07 | 9 |
| 2026-05-08 | 10 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Over 160.5 points scored +18pp 2→20¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Over 169.5 points scored +18pp 2→20¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Over 174.5 points scored +12pp 2→14¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Over 165.5 points scored +11pp 2→13¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Over 169.5 points scored +9pp 20→29¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 17% probability represents the market's assessment that Washington will win an upcoming matchup against Atlanta. The odds heavily favor Atlanta at 72 cents, indicating either significant strength from the visiting team or weakness from Washington as the apparent home team. Trading volume on the winner contract ($409 in 24 hours) suggests moderate interest from bettors. The probability could shift based on team performance trends, injury reports, or roster changes in the days leading up to the game. Point-total markets show minimal activity, with traders pricing high-scoring outcomes at low probability, suggesting expectations for a closer, lower-scoring contest. Resolution will occur when the game is played and final results are recorded.

### Key factors

- Atlanta is priced at 72 cents to win versus Washington at 27 cents, a roughly 2.7:1 odds ratio favoring Atlanta
- Winner contract volume of $409 in 24 hours indicates moderate but not exceptional betting interest compared to major matchups
- Point-total markets show minimal trading volume ($0 across all three spread levels), suggesting low confidence in specific scoring predictions
- The 17% Washington probability implies bettors consider them significant underdogs, likely due to recent performance, matchup dynamics, or roster composition
- No injury reports, schedule changes, or other major catalysts are reflected in available contract data as of the current observation point

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wnbatotal
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wnbatotal

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.