# Will the Connecticut Sun Women's Pro Basketball team win at least 10 games this season

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 32% across 16 contracts — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wnbawins
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:43.509Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-10-07

## Headline

- Probability: 32% (liquidity-weighted across 16 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (16 contracts)
- 24h volume: $14K

## Bound contracts (16)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30+ wins | 38¢ | +12pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-atlanta-dream-womens-pro-basketball-team-kalshi-kxwnbawins-26atl-30 |
| 30+ wins | 40¢ | +16pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-las-vegas-aces-womens-pro-basketball-team-kalshi-kxwnbawins-26lv-30 |
| 30+ wins | 37¢ | +7pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-indiana-fever-womens-pro-basketball-team-kalshi-kxwnbawins-26ind-30 |
| 30+ wins | 53¢ | +11pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-new-york-liberty-womens-pro-basketball-te-kalshi-kxwnbawins-26ny-30 |
| 15+ wins | 6¢ | +15pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-seattle-storm-womens-pro-basketball-team-kalshi-kxwnbawins-26sea-15 |
| 10+ wins | 83¢ | −13pp | $706 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-connecticut-sun-womens-pro-basketball-tea-kalshi-kxwnbawins-26conn-10 |
| 35+ wins | 14¢ | +3pp | $420 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-new-york-liberty-womens-pro-basketball-te-kalshi-kxwnbawins-26ny-35 |
| 25+ wins | 35¢ | −6pp | $394 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-los-angeles-sparks-womens-pro-basketball-kalshi-kxwnbawins-26la-25 |
| 10+ wins | 7¢ | −25pp | $357 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-seattle-storm-womens-pro-basketball-team-kalshi-kxwnbawins-26sea-10 |
| 10+ wins | 89¢ | −15pp | $343 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-toronto-tempo-womens-pro-basketball-team-kalshi-kxwnbawins-26tor-10 |
| 25+ wins | 21¢ | −3pp | $341 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-golden-state-valkyries-womens-pro-basketb-kalshi-kxwnbawins-26gs-25 |
| 25+ wins | 35¢ | −3pp | $313 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-minnesota-lynx-womens-pro-basketball-team-kalshi-kxwnbawins-26min-25 |
| 35+ wins | 3¢ | — | $254 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-indiana-fever-womens-pro-basketball-team-kalshi-kxwnbawins-26ind-35 |
| 20+ wins | 45¢ | +5pp | $104 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-washington-mystics-womens-pro-basketball-kalshi-kxwnbawins-26wsh-20 |
| 10+ wins | 8¢ | +19pp | $11 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-portland-fire-womens-pro-basketball-team-kalshi-kxwnbawins-26pdx-10 |
| 15+ wins | 3¢ | −14pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-portland-fire-womens-pro-basketball-team-kalshi-kxwnbawins-26pdx-15 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 3 |
| 2026-05-07 | 30 |
| 2026-05-08 | 37 |
| 2026-05-09 | 38 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · 10+ wins +56pp 2→58¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · 10+ wins +54pp 2→56¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · 10+ wins +51pp 2→53¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · 15+ wins +42pp 2→44¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · 25+ wins +40pp 2→42¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The market implies an 87% probability that the Connecticut Sun will win at least 40 games this season. This reflects confidence in the team's performance, though the contract structure reveals meaningful uncertainty: the 30-win threshold sits at 75%, suggesting markets discount scenarios involving significant mid-season injury or trading activity. The primary drivers are roster continuity—retention of key players during the offseason—and injury status entering the stretch run. The resolution point is the regular season conclusion in September 2026, when win totals will be finalized. Current implied probabilities suggest markets view a 40-win finish as more likely than not, but assign material probability to underperformance scenarios, which would be resolved by cumulative game outcomes over the remaining months.

### Key factors

- Roster composition and injury status of core players will directly affect win rate; any significant roster changes or season-ending injuries would shift probabilities downward
- Market prices show a material drop from 87% (40+ wins) to 75% (30+ wins), indicating concentrated uncertainty between 30-40 wins rather than catastrophic failure
- The 10-win threshold trades at 50¢ versus 87¢ for 40-wins, reflecting extremely low probability of severe underperformance but non-zero tail risk
- Season outcomes depend on consistent performance across remaining games; early-season momentum or slumps will provide empirical data that adjusts probabilities
- Regular season ends in September 2026, providing definitive resolution; interim standings updates through July-August will generate the most significant probability movements

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wnbawins
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wnbawins

## License

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