# Will Portland have the worst record in the 2026 Women's Pro Basketball regular season

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 25% across 4 contracts — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wnbaworstrec
Updated: 2026-08-10T07:20:51.285Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-10-09

## Headline

- Probability: 25% (liquidity-weighted across 4 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $864

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle | 68¢ | +2pp | $465 | kalshi | /markets/will-seattle-have-the-worst-record-in-the-2026-wom-kalshi-kxwnbaworstrec-26-sea |
| Connecticut | 25¢ | ±0 | $399 | kalshi | /markets/will-connecticut-have-the-worst-record-in-the-2026-kalshi-kxwnbaworstrec-26-conn |
| Chicago | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-chicago-have-the-worst-record-in-the-2026-wom-kalshi-kxwnbaworstrec-26-chi |
| Phoenix | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-phoenix-have-the-worst-record-in-the-2026-wom-kalshi-kxwnbaworstrec-26-phx |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | 42 |
| 2026-07-27 | 48 |
| 2026-08-03 | 35 |
| 2026-08-09 | 46 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-08 · Seattle +6pp 59→65¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-04 · Connecticut −5pp 35→30¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-08 · Connecticut −5pp 30→25¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-04 · Seattle −3pp 60→57¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-03 · Connecticut −3pp 38→35¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract represents the probability that Portland finishes the 2026 Women's Pro Basketball regular season with the worst record among all teams. At 19%, Portland is priced as the third-most likely team to finish last, behind Connecticut (45%) and roughly tied with Chicago (5%) and Seattle (4%). The current probability reflects expectations about roster strength, coaching changes, and injury status heading into the season. Key drivers of this probability would include Portland's draft acquisitions, free-agent moves, and how injuries develop throughout the regular season. The resolution will occur at the end of the regular season when final standings are determined, making ongoing performance data the primary source of uncertainty reduction.

### Key factors

- Portland's final regular season win-loss record compared to all other WNBA teams
- Connecticut's higher implied probability (45%) suggests market participants view them as more likely to finish last despite being the Eastern Conference favorites in some preseason projections
- Chicago is priced significantly lower (5%) despite also being considered a lottery team, indicating different market expectations about their roster composition
- Changes to Portland's roster, coaching staff, or injury situation between now and season end will directly impact their likelihood of finishing with the worst record
- The aggregate probability across all teams should theoretically equal 100%, but comparing individual team probabilities shows relative market confidence in Portland's performance versus direct competitors

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wnbaworstrec
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wnbaworstrec

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.