# 2026 Women's French Open Winner

> Aryna Sabalenka leads at 30%, runner-up 25% across 7 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/womens-french-open-winner
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:39.927Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-06

## Headline

- Leader: Aryna Sabalenka at 30%
- Runner-up: Iga Świątek at 25%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aryna Sabalenka | 30¢ | ±0 | $418 | polymarket | /markets/2026-womens-french-open-winner-aryna-sabalenka-polymarket-0x04b07eb732d888c94096b4fc46dc747b745e06749c21ed2e633ca7e1a6586647 |
| Iga Świątek | 25¢ | +2pp | $134 | polymarket | /markets/2026-womens-french-open-winner-iga-witek-polymarket-0x80b8b8568be8e6d54f8417ce5ebf2e7971f97373556dc262a658d3dcaacd392a |
| Elena Rybakina | 11¢ | ±0 | $107 | polymarket | /markets/2026-womens-french-open-winner-elena-rybakina-polymarket-0xc8e467fbf7e96bd9bdf64ced89bbc8f6ad0ecf2c78391ee8e778b6f6e6194ee7 |
| Coco Gauff | 10¢ | −1pp | $119 | polymarket | /markets/2026-womens-french-open-winner-coco-gauff-polymarket-0x9ec71fa02a69c376465ef1d997dd3c2fb9da5a33b70c45e607bba1fcc1d05907 |
| Mirra Andreeva | 7¢ | ±0 | $126 | polymarket | /markets/2026-womens-french-open-winner-mirra-andreeva-polymarket-0x9baecdc68b73b7f4b69109dfb6d56282281b0cce490aa97af8b8129c2744ad6a |
| Qinwen Zheng | 3¢ | +1pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/2026-womens-french-open-winner-qinwen-zheng-polymarket-0x0a1abbecf10958bac71250802458ec4691d10e323da1c12fd268ccd5ace49269 |
| Marta Kostyuk | 3¢ | +1pp | $300 | polymarket | /markets/2026-womens-french-open-winner-marta-kostyuk-polymarket-0xc13d428b3a4ef1581d1d8c7fefd431b085bb3e3fd51a74f699b7ba5b62aa4972 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aryna Sabalenka | Iga Świątek | Elena Rybakina |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 30 | 28 | 9 |
| 2026-04-25 | 27 | 23 | — |
| 2026-04-26 | 27 | 22 | 12 |
| 2026-04-30 | 33 | — | 11 |
| 2026-05-02 | — | 16 | 12 |
| 2026-05-07 | 32 | 22 | 12 |
| 2026-05-08 | — | 24 | 12 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Iga Świątek +6pp 16→22¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Coco Gauff +3pp 9→12¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The 32% probability represents the market's assessment that one specific player (currently the favorite) will win the 2026 Women's French Open. This level reflects uncertainty about whether the leading contender can maintain form through the tournament or if competitors will peak at the right time. The main factors driving the probability are the favorite's recent match results, injury status, and head-to-head records against other top seeds. The tournament itself, scheduled for late May/early June 2026, will directly resolve this outcome; until then, probabilities will shift based on pre-tournament performance at smaller events and any reported fitness issues among top players.

### Key factors

- Current favorite's win rate and ranking points in 2026 clay-court season leading into Roland Garros
- Injury reports or withdrawals among the top 5 seeded players in the weeks before the tournament
- Historical performance data: how often has the pre-tournament favorite won the Women's French Open in recent years
- Head-to-head records between the current market leader and other top contenders at clay-court events
- Seeding and draw structure once the official bracket is released, typically one week before play begins

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/womens-french-open-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=womens-french-open-winner

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.