# 2026 Women’s Singles Roland Garros

> Winner: Linda Noskova leads at 44%, runner-up 37% across 20 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/womens-singles-roland-garros
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:38.599Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-08

## Headline

- Leader: Winner: Linda Noskova at 44%
- Runner-up: Winner: Naomi Osaka at 37%
- Outcomes: 20 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner: Linda Noskova | 44¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/2026-womens-singles-roland-garros-winner-linda-nos-polymarket-0xa65f2b4e4d68742e03cbeeb83a52d9e44d7d8c8eedea28f54c0099c2331a61d1 |
| Winner: Naomi Osaka | 37¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/2026-womens-singles-roland-garros-winner-naomi-osa-polymarket-0xd6ee583865addf38b68905812b9bfd5001d81a66bbdd30a5d29cba2e317aaf48 |
| Winner: Diana Shnaider | 36¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/2026-womens-singles-roland-garros-winner-diana-shn-polymarket-0x478659297fc6b14c30ff751a4fbc083c1615b1113dacedb297c292f92c494898 |
| Winner: Elise Mertens | 36¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/2026-womens-singles-roland-garros-winner-elise-mer-polymarket-0x3753a61d56f8e12dcfb77a69767e62d8d8f96e818575d714611b64e7bcb6e85d |
| Winner: Aryna Sabalenka | 34¢ | — | $3 | polymarket | /markets/2026-womens-singles-roland-garros-winner-aryna-sab-polymarket-0xa88a6caf5bd983b56ba477458a481104f2c11da592e49f4ae9ffe480797ab867 |
| Winner: Elina Svitolina | 29¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/2026-womens-singles-roland-garros-winner-elina-svi-polymarket-0x28851daf6e4e9f497e352aa631908abda6a2579273a4b622ae7989669fc8d47c |
| Winner: Karolina Muchova | 29¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/2026-womens-singles-roland-garros-winner-karolina-polymarket-0x96590ead56eea1243257820c8c5b0c25dc48e82418c9a4840feacd38db00f07d |
| Winner: Ekaterina Alexandrova | 29¢ | −3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/2026-womens-singles-roland-garros-winner-ekaterina-polymarket-0x596bdb9a264826b35ba2cbb29aec82b223e86505c44861c1f087326d10ebc8cb |
| Winner: Jasmine Paolini | 29¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/2026-womens-singles-roland-garros-winner-jasmine-p-polymarket-0x0098361d86b8d8c0a3e7c4a3ae25d4445af4055b00441220c0c934eadc9b2e73 |
| Winner: Victoria Mboko | 29¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/2026-womens-singles-roland-garros-winner-victoria-polymarket-0x8f6afcb22deae623707f2b67ea431dca6e805868e386d438be5aae39916afc31 |
| Winner: Clara Tauson | 29¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/2026-womens-singles-roland-garros-winner-clara-tau-polymarket-0x85881a2837b8f84392725c708b92e6f6df85ae1f0afc60da39e5a1064747632c |
| Winner: Elena Rybakina | 26¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/2026-womens-singles-roland-garros-winner-elena-ryb-polymarket-0x137fdd28602bbe19f85827b247496ce42ddd8ed72081139d89c735b6d28eb5c1 |
| Winner: Iga Swiatek | 17¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/2026-womens-singles-roland-garros-winner-iga-swiat-polymarket-0x8f580b7fbf0c5b771adbf8afb84cfc77d97d70537d62d4e6d89c6915d4fd89d6 |
| Winner: Jessica Pegula | 15¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/2026-womens-singles-roland-garros-winner-jessica-p-polymarket-0xd3f226af16156905a5331d378703496f1ce228e204c79222102ff8bf15ef63b0 |
| Winner: Coco Gauff | 15¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/2026-womens-singles-roland-garros-winner-coco-gauf-polymarket-0x2ba42d3231d4494e2b1c6571a341994e9eb962059877e3094cabbb7b1116b410 |
| Winner: Iva Jovic | 12¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/2026-womens-singles-roland-garros-winner-iva-jovic-polymarket-0xc9588b4adf301dd3cdd33a5597539dd684aebfcb765872c2f7511cd7db603295 |
| Winner: Belinda Bencic | 10¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/2026-womens-singles-roland-garros-winner-belinda-b-polymarket-0x52f25c3c71ceffa306d89b7506a7224b1d5d8814e95ddf650fa2eb5c2c995a18 |
| Winner: Madison Keys | 10¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/2026-womens-singles-roland-garros-winner-madison-k-polymarket-0xaf8ab56abcc5c664db0ad2bf51fb79bf81cbfb98930c8c0a8fc9c2489ac36648 |
| Winner: Amanda Anisimova | 10¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/2026-womens-singles-roland-garros-winner-amanda-an-polymarket-0x9bf4ef0b1647f17889a8ec96a514a393c6997d951f20ed97e4549be444775293 |
| Winner: Mirra Andreeva | 8¢ | −8pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/2026-womens-singles-roland-garros-winner-mirra-and-polymarket-0x751a47a4ed102056875c7db5b6b54d6d50312cbcef208c68f3c95d97d4f694f7 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Winner: Linda Noskova | Winner: Naomi Osaka | Winner: Diana Shnaider |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 46 | 41 | — |
| 2026-05-02 | 44 | 40 | 43 |
| 2026-05-03 | 43 | — | 42 |
| 2026-05-06 | 46 | 37 | 37 |
| 2026-05-07 | 43 | 37 | 37 |
| 2026-05-08 | 41 | — | 37 |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Winner: Karolina Muchova −14pp 44→30¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Winner: Victoria Mboko −13pp 43→30¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Winner: Mirra Andreeva −8pp 15→7¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Winner: Victoria Mboko +8pp 30→38¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Winner: Ekaterina Alexandrova +7pp 30→37¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability represents the likelihood that a specific player will win the 2026 Women's Singles title at Roland Garros. The market shows significant fragmentation across candidates, with no single player commanding consensus—Elise Mertens leads contract pricing at 42¢, followed by Jasmine Paolini at 36¢ and Elina Svitolina at 30¢. The 47% top contract price reflects compressed odds among a field where depth and recent form carry weight. Key drivers include current WTA rankings, performance on clay courts, injury status entering the tournament in late May, and head-to-head matchup histories. The tournament itself—scheduled for May 24–June 8, 2026—will provide the definitive resolution. Until then, uncertainty remains elevated because form can shift rapidly in the three weeks before competition, and clay-court specialists often outperform their off-court rankings.

### Key factors

- Elise Mertens and Jasmine Paolini account for 78¢ of top-contract value, suggesting the market views them as co-favorites despite pricing fragmentation
- Zero 24-hour trading volume across all listed contracts indicates minimal recent information flow or market activity to move prices
- The spread between the highest-priced contract (42¢) and runner-up (36¢) is narrow enough that a small shift in player form or clay-court performance data could reverse positioning
- Roland Garros typically rewards players with strong clay-court records; players' performance at other European clay events in May will be observable signals
- The tournament date (late May 2026) is approximately three weeks away from this snapshot, leaving room for injuries, upsets at warm-up events, or ranking changes to shift market consensus

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/womens-singles-roland-garros
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=womens-singles-roland-garros

## License

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