# 2026 Women's Wimbledon Winner

> Elena Rybakina leads at 30%, runner-up 24% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/womens-wimbledon-winner
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:28.066Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-12

## Headline

- Leader: Elena Rybakina at 30%
- Runner-up: Aryna Sabalenka at 24%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $223

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elena Rybakina | 30¢ | +2pp | $6 | polymarket | /markets/2026-womens-wimbledon-winner-elena-rybakina-polymarket-0xeffa3fd586db59043682b5bb90e4162f90bbfeb488edc118702d985183de0700 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | 24¢ | −2pp | $102 | polymarket | /markets/2026-womens-wimbledon-winner-aryna-sabalenka-polymarket-0x00de24efbe083e61da20587be324b35e842b51f330c4f5c55942bf8681cd0857 |
| Coco Gauff | 5¢ | −2pp | $103 | polymarket | /markets/2026-womens-wimbledon-winner-coco-gauff-polymarket-0xb477b43678257e805f679c551cf207d9d71ffef63e8e88cf7d76c0a4fcbf07c1 |
| Amanda Anisimova | 4¢ | −1pp | $12 | polymarket | /markets/2026-womens-wimbledon-winner-amanda-anisimova-polymarket-0x6c38a11745e251dc0a383e36e03cf39e602ae43b6e3c7946ca7a9737e8309ec1 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Elena Rybakina | Aryna Sabalenka | Coco Gauff |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 18 | 30 | — |
| 2026-04-25 | 21 | 27 | — |
| 2026-04-27 | 22 | 27 | 8 |
| 2026-05-02 | 23 | 28 | 7 |
| 2026-05-06 | 22 | — | 5 |
| 2026-05-08 | 27 | 25 | — |
| 2026-05-09 | 29 | — | — |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Elena Rybakina +9pp 22→31¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · Elena Rybakina −4pp 31→27¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Amanda Anisimova −3pp 8→5¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The 27% probability reflects market expectations that one specific player will win the 2026 Wimbledon women's singles championship. This elevated probability for the leading contract suggests concentrated confidence in a particular player's chances, though the runner-up contract at 21% indicates meaningful disagreement about who the favorite truly is. The gap between these top two contracts likely reflects differences in how traders assess recent form, grass-court performance history, and injury status heading into the tournament. Wimbledon typically occurs in late June or early July, making it a mid-year event where player rankings and physical condition shift substantially from the time these predictions were placed. The relatively low trading volume on the specific Wimbledon contracts compared to other 2026 major tournaments suggests limited liquidity may be amplifying individual prices rather than reflecting deep consensus.

### Key factors

- The leading contract carries 27% while the runner-up sits at 21%, indicating the top candidate lacks clear market dominance despite the elevated single-contract probability
- Wimbledon's grass-court surface selects for specific playing styles and movement patterns, making recent grass-court results and historical performance on this surface material to individual odds
- The tournament is approximately 2 months away, leaving substantial time for player injuries, ranking changes, and warm-up tournament results to shift expectations
- Trading volumes on these Wimbledon contracts ($519–$2196 in 24-hour volume) are modest compared to other major championships, suggesting thinner markets that may exaggerate price movements
- The identity of the leading favorite contract holder (0x00de...) remains opaque, meaning the 27% price reflects a single market actor's conviction rather than aggregated consensus

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/womens-wimbledon-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=womens-wimbledon-winner

## License

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