# Will AI be in the “Word of the Year” as designated by Merriam-Webster in 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 14% across 4 contracts — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wordoftheyear
Updated: 2026-06-26T07:20:49.209Z
Category: technology
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 14% (liquidity-weighted across 4 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $11

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI | 16¢ | +2pp | $11 | kalshi | /markets/will-ai-be-in-the-word-of-the-year-as-designated-b-kalshi-kxwordoftheyear-26dec-ai |
| Brainrot | 16¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-brainrot-be-in-the-word-of-the-year-as-design-kalshi-kxwordoftheyear-26dec-bra |
| Lore | 4¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-lore-be-in-the-word-of-the-year-as-designated-kalshi-kxwordoftheyear-26dec-lor |
| Vibe | 21¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-vibe-be-in-the-word-of-the-year-as-designated-kalshi-kxwordoftheyear-26dec-vib |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-28 | 15 |
| 2026-06-12 | 16 |
| 2026-06-18 | 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | 4 |

_19 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This question asks whether Merriam-Webster will select a word related to artificial intelligence as its 2026 Word of the Year. At 8%, the market suggests this is unlikely, though not impossible. The probability reflects two competing dynamics: AI's continued prominence in technology and culture could drive selection, but Merriam-Webster historically chooses words with broad cultural resonance beyond tech sectors. The announcement typically occurs in November, providing seven months of clarity on what linguistic trends dominate public discourse. Key factors include whether AI-related terminology becomes more embedded in everyday language, how competing major events (political, cultural, social) generate alternative word candidates, and Merriam-Webster's historical tendency to favor words addressing universal human experiences over industry-specific terminology. The outcome will depend on whether AI maintains its novelty status or becomes so commonplace that alternative words better capture 2026's defining moment.

### Key factors

- Merriam-Webster's historical pattern of selecting words reflecting broad cultural moments rather than technology sector terminology
- Degree to which AI-related language becomes embedded in everyday conversation versus remaining tech-concentrated discourse
- Emergence of competing major events or social phenomena in 2026 that generate strong alternative word candidates
- Whether AI terminology evolves in 2026 (new terms entering mainstream) or remains linguistically stable
- Merriam-Webster's 2026 Word of the Year announcement occurring in November, providing resolution based on year-long linguistic trends

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wordoftheyear
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wordoftheyear

## License

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